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EUR/USD Initiates Bearish Series as Rebound Flops Ahead of November-High

EUR/USD Initiates Bearish Series as Rebound Flops Ahead of November-High

David Song, Strategist

EUR/USD is back under pressure following another failed attempt to test the November-high (1.1500), and the exchange rate may continue to consolidate ahead of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) flashes a bearish signal.

The 2019 opening range is in focus for EUR/USD as the NFP report is anticipated to show the U.S. economy adding another 180K jobs in December, but the updates may do little to snap the sideways price action as Average Hourly Earnings are expected to narrow to 3.0% from 3.1% per annum in November.

In turn, attention may turn to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as the central bank head is slated to hold a joint interview with former-Fed Chairs Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke, and the fresh rhetoric may influence the near-term outlook for the U.S. dollar as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) now thinks ‘it is more likely that the economy will grow in a way that will call for two interest rate increases.’

Image of fed fund futures

However, Fed Fund Futures continue to highlight diminishing bets for higher borrowing-costs as the central bank is expected to keep the benchmark interest rate on hold throughout the first-half of 2019, and Chairman Powell & Co. may come under pressure to conclude the hiking-cycle ahead of schedule especially as the economic outlook remains clouded by the lingering threat of a U.S.-China trade war.

As a result, the ongoing shift in fiscal policy may force Fed officials to adopt a less-hawkish tone as Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan now argues that the central bank ‘should not take any further action on interest rates, and waning expectations for a higher U.S. interest rates may continue to generate range-bound conditions for EUR/USD especially as the European Central Bank (ECB) endorses a wait-and-see approach after winding down its quantitative easing (QE) program. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Image of eurusd daily chart

EUR/USD initiates a series of lower highs & lows despite the larger-than-expected downtick in the ISM Manufacturing survey, and the exchange rate may continue to track the range-bound price action carried over from November as it remains capped by the 1.1510 (38.2% expansion) region.

Waiting for a break/close below 1.1290 (61.8% expansion) to favor a move towards the near-term support zone around 1.1220 (78.6% retracement), which lines up with the 2018-low (1.1216), but recent developments in the the Relative Strength Index (RSI) instill a bearish outlook for EUR/USD as the oscillator snaps the upward trend from November.

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 1Q 2019 Forecast for the Euro

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.