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EUR/USD Range Vulnerable as Rebound From 2018-Low Unravels

EUR/USD Range Vulnerable as Rebound From 2018-Low Unravels

David Song,

EUR/USD looks vulnerable following the European Union (EU) Summit as Moody’s Investor Services cuts the credit rating for Italy, and the rebound from the 2018-low (1.1301) may continue to unravel as the recent advance in the exchange rate fails to spur a run at the September-high (1.1815).

At the same time, the reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes instills a bullish outlook for the U.S. dollar as the central bank shows a greater willingness to extend the hiking-cycle, and a growing number of Fed officials may favor above-neutral interest rates especially asthe core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, climbs above the 2% target.

Image of fed fund futures

In turn, Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. may prepare U.S. households and businesses for an imminent rate-hike at the next meeting in November, and Fed Fund Futures may continue to reflect expectations for higher borrowing-costs in December as the committee largely achieves its dual mandate for full-employment and price stability.

With that said, the current environment may keep EUR/USD under pressure ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on October 25, and recent price action raises the risk for a further decline in the exchange rate if it snaps the range-bound price action from earlier this month. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Image of eurusd daily chart

EUR/USD appears to be marking another run at the monthly-low (1.1432) as it initiates a fresh series of lower highs & lows, with the near-term outlook capped by the string of failed attempts to clear the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1640 (23.6% expansion) to 1.1680 (50% retracement). In turn, the 1.1390 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1400 (50% expansion) region sits on the radar, with a break/close below the stated region raising the risk for a move towards the 1.1290 (61.8% expansion) hurdle, which sits just beneath the 2018-low (1.1301).

For more in-depth analysis, check out the Q4 Forecast for the Euro

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.