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EUR/USD Carves Bullish Sequence Even as ECB Warns of Euro Volatility

EUR/USD Carves Bullish Sequence Even as ECB Warns of Euro Volatility

David Song, Strategist

EUR/USD remains bid even as the European Central Bank (ECB) warns ‘recent volatility in the exchange rate represents a source of uncertainty,’ and Governing Council officials may increase their effort to talk down the Euro as ‘measures of underlying inflation remain subdued.’

ECB officials may continue to jawbone the single-currency as the central bank struggles to achieve its one and only mandate for price stability, and President Mario Draghi and Co. may ultimately adopt a more dovish tone at the next interest rate decision on March 8 as ‘an ample degree of monetary stimulus remains necessary for underlying inflation pressures to continue to build up and support headline inflation developments over the medium term.’ In turn, comments aimed at the Euro exchange rate may produce headwinds for the single-currency, with EUR/USD at risk of facing a more challenging environment over the near-term as the ECB refrains from revealing a more detailed exit-strategy.

Keep in mind, the near-term outlook for euro-dollar remains tilted to the topside as the pair breaks out of a narrow range and carves a fresh series of higher highs & lows. Moreover, the bullish momentum appears to be gathering pace as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbs into overbought territory, and the broader shift in EUR/USD behavior may continue to take shape over the coming months as the ECB remains on track to wind down the quantitative easing (QE) program in 2018. Interested in having a broader discussion on current market themes? Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups!

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Topside targets remain on the radar for EUR/USD as it carves a bullish sequence, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pushes above 70 and trades in overbought territory. Still need a close above 1.2430 (50% expansion) to open up the next topside hurdle around 1.2640 (61.8% expansion) to 1.2650 (38.2% retracement), with the next area of interest coming in around 1.2860 (50% expansion) to 1.2930 (78.6% expansion). Want to learn more about popular trading indicators and tools such as the RSI? Download and review the FREE DailyFX Advanced trading guides!

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.