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Shift in EUR/USD Behavior to Persist as ECB Alters Policy Outlook

Shift in EUR/USD Behavior to Persist as ECB Alters Policy Outlook

David Song, Strategist

EUR/USD appears to be regaining its footing ahead of the next FOMC interest rate decision on July 26 as ECB embraces a less-dovish outlook for monetary policy.

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The ECB meeting minutes suggests the Governing Council will continue to change its tune over the coming months as the euro-area expands ‘at a somewhat faster pace than previously expected.’ President Mario Draghi and Co. may sound more upbeat at the next meeting on July 20 as officials note the positive developments coming out of the euro-area ‘had to be reflected in the Governing Council’s communication by dropping the reference to the expectation of further rate cuts in its forward guidance on policy rates,’ and the central bank may show a greater willingness to gradually reduce its asset-purchase program over the coming months as the non-standard measure is set to expire in December.

Keep in mind, the Euro still faces a bumpy road ahead as the ECB appears to be on course to preserve the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) throughout 2017, while Greece struggles to secure the next tranche of its bailout program. Nevertheless, the material shift in EUR/USD behavior may continue to unfold over the near to medium-term as the Governing Council alters the forward guidance and sees ‘diminishing downside tail risks to price stability.’

EUR/USD Daily

EUR/USD Daily Chart

The broader outlook for EUR/USD remains constructive as price & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continue to track the upward trends carried over from late-2016. A near-term bull flag formation appears to be panning out as EUR/USD snaps back ahead of the former-resistance – the 1.1290 (38.2% expansion) zone – and starts to carve a series of higher highs & lows.

As a result, a break of the June-high (1.1446) may trigger a more meaningful run at the 1.1480 (78.6% expansion) hurdle, with the next region of interest coming in around 1.1580 (100% expansion).

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IG Sentiment

Retail trader data shows 25.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.97 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.06424; price has moved 7.3% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 10.1% lower than yesterday and 31.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8.8% higher than yesterday and 2.8% lower from last week. For more information on retail sentiment, check out the new gauge developed by DailyFX based on trader positioning.

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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