We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • $USDJPY Daily Pivot Points: S3: 107.96 S2: 108.33 S1: 108.55 R1: 108.93 R2: 109.08 R3: 109.45 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.39% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.17% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.14% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.00% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.09% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.18% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/hETwZGND7E
  • This week's ECB meeting minutes should be interesting to watch especially in light of the US-China #tradewar. Stay tuned for more in-depth analysis.
  • You also have to take into account the demographic factor whereby the wide-spread graying of Europe (and soon the US) will further sap inflationary pressure. As people age, they spend less of their income because unlike their younger years, they aren't trying to accumulate stuff.
  • Europeans are going to have to find a way to reconcile that because cutting rates deeper into negative territory I don't think is going to give the same stimulative effect as when rates were higher. Plus they've already got QE going on indefinitely.
  • "Policymakers therefore have to find a way to reconcile maintaining the institutional integrity of the growth and stability pact – in order to prevent states from flirting with sovereign debt crises and wrecking the Eurozone – and letting members exercise greater fiscal autonomy"
  • Commodities Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.43% Gold: 0.19% Oil - US Crude: -0.21% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/FnkOcMGqdx
  • $EURUSD Daily Pivot Points: S3: 1.0957 S2: 1.0999 S1: 1.1026 R1: 1.1069 R2: 1.1084 R3: 1.1126 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • RBNZ's Hawkesby says the OCR should be kept at a low level for some time $NZDUSD
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.36%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 83.29%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/K83nKB5PJq
EUR/USD Strength to Persist as ECB Gradually Alters Policy Outlook

EUR/USD Strength to Persist as ECB Gradually Alters Policy Outlook

2017-06-28 19:48:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
Share:

Join the DailyFX Trading Webinarsfor an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

EUR/USD faced a near-term pullback following the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) June rate-hike, but the broader outlook remains tilted to the topside especially as the European Central Bank (ECB) adopts a less dovish tone going into the second-half of the year.

While speaking at the ECB’s Forum on Central Banking, President Mario Draghistruck an improved outlook for the monetary union and noted that ‘deflationary forces have been replaced by reflationary ones, with the comments suggesting the Governing Council will look through the weakness in euro-area inflation as price growth is largely dampened by temporary factors. Even though the ECB remains in no rush to remove the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP), President Draghi and Co. may continue to alter the outlook and look to wind down its quantitative easing (QE) program over the coming months as the asset purchases are intended to run until December.

With the ECB now forecasting the euro-area to expand an annualized 1.9% in 2017, a growing number of Governing Council officials may display a greater willingness to gradually move away from the easing-cycle, but market participants appear to be unconvinced the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will deliver three rate-hikes in 2017 as Fed Fund Futures still highlight a 50/50 chance for a move in December.

EUR/USD Daily

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Topside targets remain in focus for EUR/USD as the pair takes out the August-high (1.1366) and extends the bullish sequence carried over from the previous week. A close above the 1.1350 (50% expansion) hurdle may spur a more meaningful run at the 1.1400 (61.8% expansion) handle, with the next region of interest coming in around 1.1480 (78.6% expansion).

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also reinforces a constructive outlook for EUR/USD as the oscillator breaks out of the bearish formation from the previous month. Keep in mind, failure to push into overbought territory may generate a near-term correction in the exchange rate as the bullish momentum shows signs of exhaustion.

If you’re looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides

IG Sentiment

Retail trader data shows 20.3% of traders are net-long EUR/USD with the ratio of traders short to long at 3.93 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since April 18 when EUR/USD traded near 1.0589; price has moved 7.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 7.2% lower than yesterday and 42.1% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8.5% lower than yesterday and 13.7% higher from last week. For more information on retail sentiment, check out the new gauge developed by DailyFX based on trader positioning.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.