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Another Stab at Shorting AUDNZD Ahead of RBNZ

Another Stab at Shorting AUDNZD Ahead of RBNZ

David Song, Strategist

Despite my game plan to stay short the AUDNZD going into the Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision scheduled for later this week, the short from 1.2350 got stopped out following the reaction to the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, but I will take another stab at selling the aussie-kiwi as the relative strength index approaches overbought territory. Indeed, the RBNZ could serve as the fundamental catalyst to spark a sharp reversal in the exchange rate as the central bank is widely expected to adopt a more hawkish tone for monetary policy. As the AUDNZD struggles to clear the 1.2500 figure, we will look to sell rallies in the exchange rate, and will maintain our bearish outlook for the pair as the downward trend dating back to 2011 continues to take shape.

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