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Forex Trading: AUDNZD Short Favored on Less-Dovish RBNZ

Forex Trading: AUDNZD Short Favored on Less-Dovish RBNZ

David Song, Strategist

With the Reserve Bank of New Zealand scheduled to meet later this week, we will be keeping a close eye on the AUDNZD, and we will be looking for an opportunity to sell the pair as it maintains the downward trend dating back to 2011. Despite the dismal developments coming out of New Zealand, Governor Graeme Wheeler may sound more hawkish this time around as record-low borrowing costs fuels private sector credit, and the central bank head may show a greater willingness to start normalizing monetary policy as the rebuilding efforts from the Christchurch earthquake is expected to boost economic activity this year. However, as the AUDNZD comes off of a fresh monthly low (1.2431), we will look to sell rallies in the exchange rate, and we would like to take a short around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the 2008 low to the 2011 high around 1.2580 as it remains a key pivot for the pair.

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