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Australian Dollar Cross Pick 07.10.2012

Australian Dollar Cross Pick 07.10.2012

David Song, Strategist

After taking profits on the short from 1.3000 and 1.2902, we’re seeing a short-term correction in the AUDNZD, and we’re waiting for a good opportunity to sell the pair as a bearish flag appears to be taking shape on the daily chart. As the AUDNZD maintains the downward trend carried over from the previous year, we will be keeping a close eye on the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the 2011 high to low around 1.2870-80, which lines up with the 200-Day SMA (1.2880), and we may see the pair carve out a lower top in June amid the deviation in the policy outlook.

According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by at least 75bp over the next 12-months, while market participants see the Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintaining its current policy during the same period. In turn, we will maintain our bearish outlook for the pair, and will continue to look for fresh yearly lows in the exchange rate as interest rate expectations for Australia deteriorates.

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