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Canadian Dollar Cross Pick 02.14.2012

Canadian Dollar Cross Pick 02.14.2012

David Song, Strategist

I am still looking to buy the USD/CAD as the pair continues to build a near-term base, but will stick to the sidelines for now as the exchange rate struggles to hold above the 20-Day SMA (1.0016). As the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index sits at 2.08, the contrarian indicator continues to cast a bearish outlook for the dollar-loonie, and I will wait to see the ratio narrow even further before jumping into a long trade. Nevertheless, the AUD/NZD looks primed for another leg lower after failing to close above the 20-Day SMA (1.2910) throughout February, and we may see 1.2800 finally give way as the pair looks poised for a bearish breakout. However, I may be jumping the gun here as the pair has yet to clear the February low (1.2824), and we will keep a close eye on this pair as it threatens the narrow range from earlier this month.

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