Australian Dollar Cross Pick 01.31.2012

We’ve been waiting for a pullback in the AUD/NZD to jump on another short trade, but we may have missed the boat as the pair breaks below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the 2011 high to low around 1.2880-1.2900. As support gives way, the decline from earlier this month may gather pace over the near-term, and the exchange rate may come up against the 23.6% Fib around 1.2650-60 as the bearish divergence in the relative strength index continues to pan out. In turn, we may see the 38.2% Fib play as new resistance, but will continue to sit on the sidelines until we get a higher price to sell the aussie-kiwi.