Australian Dollar Cross Pick 03.26.10
The AUD/USD crossed back below the 100-Day SMA (0.9067) this week on the back of greenback strength, and the exchange rate may continue to trend lower over the following month as the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold a neutral policy stance next month. A Bloomberg News survey shows 14 of the 19 economists polled forecast the central bank to hold the benchmark interest rate at 4.00% on April 6, while investors are pricing a 50% chance for a 25bp rate hike according to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps. As a result, I will look to take a short trade on a break below the 50-Day SMA and have placed a sell entry at 0.8962, the 3/2 low, and will target the 2/26 low at 0.8862, with the stop at 0.9002, the 50-Day SMA.
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