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Reasons for why I'm Short Australian Dollar

Reasons for why I'm Short Australian Dollar

David Rodriguez, Head of Product

I went short Australian Dollar last week and I've added to the position today, as I think there remains significant potential for further declines.

As I detailed on the Real Time News Feed last week, my initial entry was at the $1.0487 with a stop above $1.0550. I remain in that position as I look for the pair to test significant support at $1.0180.

Since then, I added to the position after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's address at Jackson Hole pushed the Dollar lower. I sold from $1.0330 with a stop above $1.0400.

Ultimately I'm paying a lot of attention to the fact that recent CFTC Commitment of Traders data shows Non-Commercial futures traders at their most net-long AUDUSD since the pair hit record-highs in 2011.

Our proprietary Speculative Sentiment Index data nonetheless shows that retail FX traders are now net-long the Australian Dollar. The combination of extremely short professional speculators and net-long retail traders provides the timing I often look for in a trade.

I will hold a base short position in the AUDUSD as long as we remain below $1.0550, while I may choose to scale out of a portion of the trade on a break below $1.0280.

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--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.