Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
NZD/USD Could See Full Retracement Back to Nov Lows

NZD/USD Could See Full Retracement Back to Nov Lows

David Cottle, Analyst

Currency Pair: Bearish NZD/USD

Expertise: Technical

Average Time Frame: Six Weeks

DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts have been updated for Q2 and are available here

The New Zealand Dollar’s downtrend against its US cousin may have become a little shallower than it used to but, but downtrend it remains and it's not likely to reverse anytime soon.

New Zealand Dollar  Vs US Dollar, Daily Chart

The US Dollar has seen a little rethink of the broad strength seen in the last three months or so but remains firmly in the ascendant. And, while the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates next month, and to do so at least once more this year, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is rather more stuck when it comes to monetary policy.

It has recently revised its outlook for inflation and growth a bit lower, with the knock-on possibility that the Official Cash Rate will remain at its 1.75% record low for quite some time yet.

Technically NZD/USD has retraced nearly of its rise up from the lows of November last year to the peaks of February 2018.

In recent days it has slipped below the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of that climb. It came in at 0.6934.

Now 100% retracement beckons, at 0.67794. With nothing very likely to disturb the weak NZ inflation picture in the next couple of months or so, or at least not to the extent that might force an early RBNZ rethink it seems all-but certain that NZD/USD will slip as far as that level, even if it doesn’t do so very rapidly.

New Zealand Dollar Vs US Dollar, Daily Chart with Fibonacci Retracement Levels Shown

Risks to this possibility will probably come from any signs of further US Dollar weakness, but they’re not yet likely to be sustained enough to prevent NZD/USD from hitting that target.


Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter @DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.