News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • USD/CAD falls to session lows as Loonie gains immediately after the BoC rate decision. Get your $USDCAD market update from @RichDvorakFX here:
  • $EURJPY is trading below 125.50 today after attempting to stage a recovery yesterday. The pair had climbed back above 126.00 yesterday after falling to around 125.10, its lowest level since early December, during Monday trading. $EUR $JPY
  • US Senator Romney: Not looking for new stimulus in the immediate future. $SPY $USD
  • Mexican #Peso Outlook: $USDMXN Breakdown to Nine-month Lows -
  • BoE Governor Bailey: - Transmission of policy at zero or negative rates is much less clear - Evidence suggests impact of negative rates isn't straightforward but they can work - Sensible to have negative rates in the toolbox $GBP
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 100.00%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 64.46%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • BoE Governor Bailey: - No decision has been made on negative rates - BoE has not discussed whether or not to introduce negative rates $GBP
  • BoE Governor Bailey: - We should see quite a pronounced recovery in economic activity as vaccine rollouts continue - UK cannot become a rule-taker from the EU in finance - UK will continue to be a global financial center $GBP
  • Corporations will continue to report their quarterly findings in the weeks ahead which will serve as a key driver of sentiment for the Dow Jones and other US indices. Get your #equities market update from @PeterHanksFX here:
  • Commodities Update: As of 17:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.78% Gold: 1.34% Oil - US Crude: 0.73% View the performance of all markets via
Elevated GBP/USD Can Probably Go Higher Yet

Elevated GBP/USD Can Probably Go Higher Yet

David Cottle, Analyst

DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts have been updated for Q2 and are available here

The UK Pound has climbed to highs against the US Dollar not seen since 2016’s seismic referendum on British membership of the European Union.

Elevated GBP/USD Can Probably Go Higher Yet

There are many macro factors behind its rise, from a broad revival in global risk appetite, the UK’s economic resilience to Brexit uncertainty and rising expectations of higher interest rates from the Bank of England. Its monetary policy committee meets next on May 10, with inflation still above its 2% target and signs of life in wage growth.

But has elevated GBP/USD got any more to give? Well, according to IG’s sentiment indicator, the market is still skewed hugely to the short side. At last look, 70% of participants were there, with only 30% long. This is the sort of skew which can make a good contrarian indicator and which we can expect to see change in short order if this week’s heavyweight UK data hold up.


Of course, there are some darker clouds ahead. For example are signs that the Eurozone’s impressive boom is cracking. Industrial production has now fallen for three straight months. If the coming data underscore this it’s bad news for the UK’s biggest export market, even if the UK cycle doesn’t turn with the EU’s, and it will might.

It may also mean that, even if another rate hike is delivered by the BoE, suspicions will grow that there may not be any, or many, more. Brexit won’t insulate the UK completely from events across the English Channel and, at any rate, it hasn’t happened yet. It is also unlikely that negotiations will remain as benign an influence on sterling as they have been in the recent past.

There will come a time for a rethink on GBP/USD, in which gravity will probably play a part. But the Pound can probably ride this uptrend a little higher yet, especially if the US corporate earnings season lives up to increasingly rosy expectations and keeps risk appetite brisk. The pair is starting to look a little overbought on its daily chart, which shouldn't surprise anyone given its recent vigor. If the bulls can consolidate around current levels then more gains could well be seen towards the high $.143s and even into the $1.44 handle


Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.