News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Bitcoin price reached its highest level seen since Jan 2018, at US$ 13,722. #BTC https://t.co/ewYVfqP6A5
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here: https://t.co/1G7CRsegRX https://t.co/DJzSCov1ls
  • Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (-0.62%) S&P 500 (-0.58%) Nasdaq 100 (-0.43%) [delayed] -BBG
  • #gold prices appear to bias towards the upside in the medium-term outlook as the Fed balance sheet hits a record high at US$ 7.17 trillion in October. https://t.co/VeWtshH2Do
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.63%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 71.38%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/K1WCvXfvHP
  • Forex sentiment analysis can be a useful tool to help traders understand and act on price behavior. Learn how to get the most out of understanding trader sentiment here: https://t.co/LjEjTexrCg https://t.co/mScAj3cYuw
  • Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) is close to taking out the June 26, 2019 swing high to put us to highs not seen since January 2018. The next technical line in the sand is 13,880 https://t.co/5wLI95NvVp
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.21% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.13% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.03% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.06% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.08% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.15% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/HvNnGTl1K1
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: -0.58% Wall Street: -0.60% FTSE 100: -0.61% Germany 30: -1.34% France 40: -1.51% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/Gkj2BzNMfm
  • Japanese Yen Outlook: Wait-and-See Bank of Japan May Bolster JPY - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2020/10/28/Japanese-Yen-Outlook-Wait-and-See-Bank-of-Japan-May-Bolster-JPY-.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr $JPY $EURJPY $USDJPY https://t.co/wa9uqxV7Bw
Australian Dollar Forecast Versus Yen, AUD/JPY Declines to Resume?

Australian Dollar Forecast Versus Yen, AUD/JPY Declines to Resume?

2019-10-15 04:45:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
Share:

Australian Dollar, AUD/JPY - Talking Points

  • Australian Dollar may fall if US and China backtrack trade progress
  • Anti-risk Japanese Yen may rally. AUD eyeing jobs data, China GDP
  • AUD/JPY may breakout below Symmetrical Triangle, extend declines

Build confidence in your own AUD/JPY strategy with the help of our free guide!

Australian Dollar Fundamental Outlook

The sentiment-linked Australian Dollar has been making cautious upside progress against its major counterparts as of late. This occurred alongside a pickup in risk appetite amid hopes of a US-China trade deal at the end of last week. But its advance, particularly against the anti-risk Japanese Yen, is vulnerable to a sudden U-turn in trade talks and upcoming local and external economic data.

Back in June at the G20 Leaders Summit in Japan, the world’s largest economies reached a tariff ceasefire. This fell apart in the ensuing months as key fundamental differences were not reconciled, such as intellectual property, leading to escalation such as the US labeling China a currency manipulator. Thus, traders ought to proceed last week’s developments with a grain of salt.

The MSCI Emerging Market Index has thus far declined since Friday, repeating similar disappointing price action in the aftermath of the G20 Summit about 4 months ago. A signature between the US and China could be reached at the APEC meeting in Chile next month. But until then, risk trends will continue to be left exposed to ongoing developments between Washington and Beijing.

In the near-term, the Australian Dollar has local jobs data and Chinese GDP waiting for it. The RBA has made its point to highlight the importance of labor developments for its trajectory of interest rates. Meanwhile, economic news flow out of China continues to disappoint relative to expectations. As a China liquid proxy, the Aussie may weaken if worse-than-expected GDP fuels RBA rate cut bets further.

Join me at 1:45 GMT on Friday for LIVE coverage of China GDP where I will be discussing the Australian Dollar and ASEAN FX

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook

Focusing on technical analysis, the AUD/JPY may soon find a breakout of a Symmetrical Triangle candlestick pattern. This is typically a continuation formation, and in this instance may resume the downtrend that ensued back in April. Though at times, Symmetrical Triangles can preclude a reversal of the preceding trend. An example of this can be found recently in USD/SGD.

The floor of the triangle is the rising trend line from late August which intersects with resistance from late July – red area on the chart below. A breakout under the pattern may pave the way for a retest of 70.66, a price level last reached back in 2009, before perhaps taking out 69.97. Otherwise invalidating this bearish setup, and perhaps leading to a bullish reversal, places the focus on the September highs (73.93 – 74.47).

Follow me on twitter @ddubrovskyFX for updates on AUD/JPY’s performance

AUD/JPY Daily Chart

Australian Dollar Forecast Versus Yen, AUD/JPY Declines to Resume?

Chart Created Using TradingView

FX Trading Resources

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES