News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • EU RAISES 2021 EURO-AREA GDP FORECAST TO 4.3% FROM 3.8%
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 BoE Gov Bailey Speech due at 09:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-12
  • Heads Up:💶 Industrial Production YoY (MAR) due at 09:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 11.7% Previous: -1.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-12
  • Heads Up:🇨🇳 New Yuan Loans (APR) due at 09:00 GMT (15min) Actual: CNY1470B Expected: CNY1600B Previous: CNY2730B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-12
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9Flsqcxo9 https://t.co/dJNcNUzChH
  • 🇵🇭 Interest Rate Decision Actual: 2% Expected: 2% Previous: 2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-12
  • Ethereum (ETH)/Bitcoin (BTC) spread just keeps on giving. Bitcoin dominance 42.2%, Ethereum dominance 19.7%. Still some way but flippening? #bitcoin #btc #ethereum #eth @DailyFX Chart via @IGcom https://t.co/Uqt6hwu9Xz
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 89.64%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 66.48%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/H4fL2uLFTR
  • Heads Up:🇫🇷 IEA Oil Market Report due at 08:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-12
  • Heads Up:💶 ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting due at 08:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-12
AUD/NZD New Uptrend in Focus with Conflicting Technical Signals

AUD/NZD New Uptrend in Focus with Conflicting Technical Signals

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

AUD/NZD Talking Points

  • Rosy Australian economic data may propel AUD/NZD higher
  • The dominant AUD/NZD downtrend was overturned recently
  • Technical analysis warns it may decline next, watch support

Build confidence in your own AUD/NZD strategy with the help of our free guide!

AUD/NZD Fundamental Outlook

The Australian Dollar could have more room to appreciate against its New Zealand counterpart in the aftermath of a more dovish RBNZ. In late March, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hinted that a rate cut could be the more likely option going forward following a downgrade in their economic outlook. This has been the case with most major central banks recently, including the Fed and ECB.

Typically tending to behave as a risk-neutral pair, AUD/NZD tends to focus more on monetary policy bets from the RBA and RBNZ respectively. The former has not declared its bias towards easing, and markets are around ¾ confident of a rate cut by year-end when looking at overnight index swaps. At its most recent interest rate decision this month, the Reserve Bank of Australia did drop hints that it is closely watching the risks.

Until higher odds of a cut may be confirmed by the central bank, the focus for AUD/NZD will be on how domestic economic news flow crosses the wires. According to the Citi Surprise Index, data crossing the wires out of Australia are tending to be rosier than those from New Zealand as of late. As such, there may be a chance that the currency pair trades higher in the interim.

Here are key event risk to keep an eye out for ahead via the DailyFX Economic Calendar

AUD, NZD Event Risk This Week

AUD/NZD New Uptrend in Focus with Conflicting Technical Signals

AUD, NZD Event Risk Next Week

AUD/NZD New Uptrend in Focus with Conflicting Technical Signals

AUD/NZD Technical Analysis

On the daily AUD/NZD chart below, the climb above the falling trend line from August (noted beforehand) appears to have overturned the dominant downtrend. From the bottom in March, prices rose 2.7% at the time of this writing. Near-term resistance at 1.0544 was also cleared, opening the door to testing the next psychological barrier between 1.0639 and 1.0670.

AUD/NZD Daily Chart

AUD/NZD New Uptrend in Focus with Conflicting Technical Signals

Zooming in on the 4-hour chart below shows a rising support line that has guided the pair higher in the near-term (pink line). Negative RSI divergence does show that upside momentum is fading, hinting that a turn lower could be in store next. However, I would like to see a close under 1.0398 to confirm that AUD/NZD’s upside breakout might be a false one.

You may follow me on twitter @ddubrovskyFX for updates in the Australian and New Zealand Dollars. I will be closely watching this pair ahead.

AUD/NZD 4-Hour Chart

AUD/NZD New Uptrend in Focus with Conflicting Technical Signals

ChartsCreated in TradingView

FX Trading Resources

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

https://www.dailyfx.com/free_guide-tg.html?ref-author=Dubrovsky

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES