We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Understanding the US-Mexico relationship and how the ebb and flow of economic activity in the former impacts the latter is crucial for trading USD/MXN. Get your $USDMXN market update from @ZabelinDimitri and @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/oCRV13zbF0 https://t.co/ZnqRxkYayI
  • 🇳🇱 Consumer Confidence Final (JUN) Actual: -27 Previous: -31 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-07-06
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.22%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 69.86%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/MNLQfuvr2U
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.33% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.30% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.26% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.09% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.01% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.18% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/1neF13YBgw
  • Heads Up:🇳🇱 Consumer Confidence Final (JUN) due at 04:30 GMT (15min) Previous: -31 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-07-06
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 2.30% France 40: 2.21% Wall Street: 1.75% FTSE 100: 1.54% US 500: 1.44% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/hossI2xmCO
  • A macro forex trading guide exploring the US-Canada relationship and how to trade the Canadian Dollar through the prism of the Core-Perimeter model. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri and @PeterHanksFX here:https://t.co/dF51UMcGFC https://t.co/Ba5JxKQFrH
  • RT @DanielGMoss: Risk assets following Chinese equities higher as the #ChinaA50 index breaks to fresh 12-year highs The trade-sensitive $…
  • RT @margaretyjy: The FTSE China A50 Index hit 12-year high at 15,600 points. Mainland China brokerage firms were reported to see new accoun…
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.15% Gold: -0.10% Silver: -0.40% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/t230TpLdIC
NZD/USD Prices May Fall as NAFTA Clears & Fed Rate Hike Bets Rise

NZD/USD Prices May Fall as NAFTA Clears & Fed Rate Hike Bets Rise

2018-08-29 04:15:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
Share:

NZD/USD Trading Strategy: Bearish

  • The New Zealand Dollar may keep gaining in the interim as NAFTA progress lifts stocks
  • Once event risk passes, Fed rate hike bets could increase leaving NZD/USD vulnerable
  • NZD/USD upside momentum seems to be fading, a reversal may open the door to a short

Build confidence in your own NZD/USD strategy with the help of our free guide!

To stay updated on this setup, you may follow Daniel here @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

NZD/USD Fundamental Bearish Argument

An improvement in market mood amidst progress on NAFTA talks between the US and Mexico has helped push the pro-risk New Zealand Dollar higher against its US counterpart. Canada was at first left out of negotiations, but now it is actively discussing the terms of the new trade pact between its North American neighbors. Recently, it was reported readying to make dairy concessions for compromises on other matters.

An accord that brings the countries closer out of a potential trade war will likely fuel more upside gains in stocks. But once this settles into the markets, the focus for NZD/USD could turn back to interest rate fundamentals. Coincidentally, if NAFTA talks prevail and lowers the risk for global growth, then the Fedcould be given more scope to raise rates in the future.

Overnight index swaps aren’t fully pricing in an additional Fed rate hike by December. This could open the door to more US Dollar gains in the near-term as those bets come in-line with the central bank’s outlook. Meanwhile, the RBNZ is relatively dovish and it isn’t anticipating to change rates until into 2020. With that in mind, fundamental speaking this offers an argument for NZD/USD to decline once NAFTA clears.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis – Upside Momentum Fading

At the moment, it would be best to stand aside until the event risk passes. The technicals in NZD/USD suggest it is still in an uptrend when looking at the shorter term. On the daily chart, the New Zealand Dollar appears to be pushing above the descending resistance line from June. A daily close above that and 0.6725 (July support now resistance) could open the door for the pair to test 0.6851 afterwards.

NZD/USD Daily Chart

Chart created in TradingView

However, zooming in on the four-hour interval shows that upside momentum is fading via negative RSI divergence. While this does not guarantee that prices will turn lower next, it should warrant caution. The New Zealand Dollar could also consolidate against its US cousin as a result. With that in mind, we will be actively watching this pair for potential selling opportunities in the near-term.

NZD/USD 4-Hour Chart

Chart created in TradingView

FX Trading Resources

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.