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Daily Observations: October 30, 2013

Daily Observations: October 30, 2013

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Current Positions:

- [10/30] Long EURUSD (2x) from 1.3750, Stop at 1.3725, Target 1 at 1.3800, Target 2 at 1.3990

- [10/30] Long GBPUSD (2x) from 1.6050, Stop at 1.6020, Target 1 at 1.6095 (move stop to 1.6050, no profit), Target 2 at 1.6145 (first profit), Target 3 at 1.6205, Target 4 at 1.6250, Target 5 open-ended

Recently Closed Positions:

- [10/25-10/29] Exited Long AUDJPY from 93.11 at 92.90 for -21-pips

- [10/25-10/30] Closed Short GBPUSD from 1.6189 at 1.6045 for +144-pips

My recent AUDJPY long was disappointing to say the least. After racking up 80-pips in just a day (Friday to Monday), it was slammed lower and stopped out for -21-pips.

It's now back at 93.40 this morning (at the time of writing), but no reason to chase. Considering the AUDJPY remains below its downtrend from last week's highs and below the uptrend from the August and early-October lows, I view the recent bounce as countertrend. I'd be reinterested long AUDJPY above 93.60, but would only commit if price were to hold above 94.00 by the week's close (November 1).

The GBPUSD short worked out well on the other hand, running into the rising TL from the July, August, and October lows ahead of the Fed's meeting today as desired. I outlined the conditions for a short at the end of last week. Now, I am looking long GBPUSD. Being mindful of potential turning point at uptrend support, my stop is below the day's lows - at that point, I'd flip bearish.

I'm also looking long EURUSD now that price has shown its desire to breakout from the consolidation resulting from yesterday's selloff. The conditions for this trade were discussed in this morning's webinar in the DailyFX Live Trading Room covering the 3Q'13 Spanish GDP report. Similar to GBPUSD, I will keep a tight stop under the daily low given the heavy event risk ahead, although the technicals give me confidence in a higher probability long into the important event.

Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

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