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Daily Observations: August 06, 2013

Daily Observations: August 06, 2013

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Current Positions:

- Short AUDUSD (1/2) at net 0.9192, Stop at 0.9170, Target 1 at 0.9045, Target 2 at 0.8960, Target 3 at 0.8770, Target 4 at 0.8545

Closed Positions:

- Short AUDUSD (1/) from net 0.9192 at 0.8960 for +232-pips; full-size position gain of +116-pips

Typical Time Frame: 1-day to 1-week

The RBA cut its key interest rate by 25-bps as expected but the shift in rate expectations ahead of the print - from 91% to 106% (100% for 25-bps cut; 6% for 50-bps cut) - marked the peak in bearish sentiment for the Australian Dollar. But that doesn't mean the decline is over.

A look at price action today shows only meager gains by the Australian Dollar in the wake of the less dovish than expected policy meeting. If the Australian Dollar is to recover, now is the time - otherwise it is clear that the bearish implications of the global commodity supercycle ending and the slowdown of China are too great to overcome in the short-term.

This is a big week for the Australian Dollar.A fight for $0.9000 is on against the US Dollar.

Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?

As always, any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the DailyFX Real Time News feed, or by following me on Stocktwits/Twitter @CVecchioFX.

I also host a weekly Live Trading Q&A in DailyFX Plus, on Tuesdays at 06:00 EDT / 10:00 GMT, in which I delve deeper into my positions and thought processes behind my analyses.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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