News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Will the Swiss Franc find reprieve after recent losses against the Canadian and New Zealand Dollars as NZD/CHF and CAD/CHF uptrends face key chart barriers? Find out from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/c89gcaNhTt https://t.co/AyIyZ4xpjQ
  • US daily Covid-19 new cases have fallen to 133,913 on January 25th, marking the lowest reading since November 15th. The 7-day moving average of daily cases has also been declining with the rollout of coronavirus vaccines. https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/01/27/Nasdaq-Poises-to-Rise-with-Hang-Seng-ASX-200-Apple-Earnings-in-Focus.html https://t.co/bn5cYen2i2
  • Apple, Facebook, Tesla advanced in afterhours trade before their earnings release on Wednesday. Here are the EPS forecasts: - Apple: EPS $1.43 (+13.6% YoY) - Facebook: EPS $3.54 (+38.2% YoY) - Tesla: EPS $1.01 (+505.7% YoY)
  • Heads Up:🇨🇳 Industrial Profits (YTD) YoY (DEC) due at 01:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 2.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-27
  • The Australian Dollar may be at risk of losses against the New Zealand Dollar after an unexpectedly high NZ inflation reading sent AUD/NZD towards challenging short-term rising trend support. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/PfV9MCIvw1 https://t.co/iLTliBJaXG
  • Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (+0.04%) S&P 500 (+0.09%) Nasdaq 100 (+0.47%) [delayed] -BBG
  • The Bitcoin/Ethereum ratio’s break to its lowest levels since August 2018 suggests that ETH may continue to outperform BTC in the coming weeks. Key levels to watch for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Get your $btc market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/mo3rw7bP4v https://t.co/qKJMkhbdkN
  • Overlooked this past session given the extreme volatility in heavily shorted US stocks: the PBOC warned of an asset bubble as it drained liquidity; the IMF said Biden's $1.9 tln stimulus could add 5ppt GDP to the US over 3 years and ECB made a thinly veiled threat over $EURUSD
  • 🇦🇺 Inflation Rate QoQ (Q4) Actual: 0.9 Expected: 0.7% Previous: 1.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-27
  • 🇦🇺 Inflation Rate YoY (Q4) Actual: 0.9% Expected: 0.7% Previous: 0.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-27
Daily Observations: August 02, 2013

Daily Observations: August 02, 2013

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Current Positions:

- Short AUDUSD (1/2) at net 0.9192, Stop at 0.9170, Target 1 at 0.9045, Target 2 at 0.8960, Target 3 at 0.8770, Target 4 at 0.8545

Closed Positions:

- Short AUDUSD (1/) from net 0.9192 at 0.8960 for +232-pips; full-size position gain of +116-pips

Typical Time Frame: 1-day to 1-week

The expected AUDUSD rally never materialized after FOMC and the initial excitement seen in the pair after the disappointing July NFP report has already been retraced in its entirety. What does this tell me?

- USD demand remains high despite slower than desired labor progress

- traders continue to spurn the AUD in favor of fundamentally strong currencies

- the expected RBA rate cut on Tuesday continues to be the biggest driver of AUD sentiment

If anything, the NFP report may put focus on a weaker USDJPY and if so, AUDJPY shorts are favored to AUDUSD. In either case, commentary from RBA Governor Stevens on Tuesday was revealing. He noted that the inflation outlook remains dampened substantially, and isn't at risk for overheating "short of a very, very large depreciation, which of course we haven't yet seen."

Translation: the ~15% decline since mid-April doesn't even qualify as a "very, very large depreciation," and the Australian Dollar could decline much further before it becomes a concern. 'Don't fight the Fed' applies here: don't fight the RBA.

Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?

As always, any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the DailyFX Real Time News feed, or by following me on Stocktwits/Twitter @CVecchioFX.

I also host a weekly Live Trading Q&A in DailyFX Plus, on Tuesdays at 06:00 EDT / 10:00 GMT, in which I delve deeper into my positions and thought processes behind my analyses.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES