Daily Observations: July 30, 2013
- Short AUDUSD at net 0.9192 (1/2 0.9164, 1/2 0.9220), Stop at 0.9170, Target 1 at 0.9045, Target 2 at 0.8960
Typical Time Frame: 1-day to 1-week
I remain short the AUDUSD but in light of today's sharp swing lower I've moved my Stop from 0.9350 to 0.9170, thereby eliminating the risk of a -158-pip loss; at minimum it will be a +22-pip gain. Accordingly, when Target 1 at 0.9045 is hit, no change to the Stop will be made.
Should price approach 0.8960 before the Fed meeting tomorrow, my plan is to take 1/2 profit and look to sell a rebound into 0.9130; with US NFPs on Friday, another print near +200K should help support the buck.
I remain bearish on the Aussie, which I noted last week was carrying a 72% chance of a rate cut at the RBA's next meeting; after today, that figure has jumped to 92% and is a prime reason for rampant weakness.
I also host a weekly Live Trading Q&A in DailyFX Plus, on Tuesdays at 06:00 EDT / 10:00 GMT, in which I delve deeper into my positions and thought processes behind my analyses.
--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst
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