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Daily Observations: July 26, 2013

Daily Observations: July 26, 2013

2013-07-26 12:40:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:

Current Positions:

- Short AUDUSD at net 0.9192 (1/2 0.9164, 1/2 0.9220), Stop at 0.9350, Target 1 at 0.9045, Target 2 at 0.8960 [total risk = 93-pips/full size position]

Closed Positions:

- Exited Short GBPUSD from 1.5390 at 1.5390 for 0-pips

Typical Time Frame: 1-day to 1-week

A surprise, late article from the Fed's mouthpiece on Thursday provoked rampant US Dollar selling late in the US session, knocking out my short GBPUSD position at flat and putting the AUDUSD trade underwater. However, I was anticipating a rebound in the AUDUSD, as I noted in yesterday's analyst pick that I intended to fill out the entire position to full size at 0.9220 to bring my net short to 0.9164.

Given the scope of the USDJPY turnaround, it appears that AUDJPY may be the favored pair to take advantage of further Australian Dollar weakness. While I may cycle into the AUDJPY; there are still several reasons that I still find AUDUSD attractive to the downside:

- Chinese data has worsened, not improved since the relief period afforded by the 2Q'13 GDP print.

- Rate cut expectations for the RBA's August 6 meeting peg a 72% chance of a 25-bps cut, up from 44% at the end of the week of the July 2 meeting.

- Although the Fed may outline measures to focus on keeping interest rates low (very important for US housing), once the pace QE3 slows, investors will sell their US Treasury holdings, pushing up rates, supporting the US Dollar.

Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?

As always, any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the DailyFX Real Time News feed, or by following me on Stocktwits/Twitter @CVecchioFX.

I also host a weekly Live Trading Q&A in DailyFX Plus, on Tuesdays at 06:00 EDT / 10:00 GMT, in which I delve deeper into my positions and thought processes behind my analyses.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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