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Daily Observations: July 24, 2013

Daily Observations: July 24, 2013

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Current Positions:

- Short GBPUSD at 1.5390, Stop at 1.5540, Target 1 at 1.5280, Target 2 at 1.5170, Target 3 at 1.5030

Pending Positions:

- Short AUDUSD on daily close <0.9220, Stop at 0.9350, Target 1 at 0.9145, Target 2 at 0.9045, Target 3 at 0.8960

Typical Time Frame: 1-day to 1-week

The short GBPUSD trade I initially discussed on Monday and chose to retain on Tuesday was initiated late in the US session yesterday, and I intend on remaining short through the close today. However, once my first target of 1.5280 is met, I will move up my Stop to my entry at 1.5390 to remove any risk. Upon each subsequent target being hit, I will move my Stop up to the prior target (i.e., once Target 2 is reached, the prior Target 1 will become the new Stop level).

Elsewhere, I'm watching for early signs of a US Dollar turnaround with the AUDUSD catching my attention in particular. Of note, a failed breakout yesterday of the sideways/slight downtrend since late-June has teed up a daily Bearish Key Reversal today on a close under 0.9220.

With Chinese data turning lower alongside softer Australian inflation data, chances for another rate cut by the RBA are increasing for the August meeting. Overall, the continued divergence between Australia/China and the US on the monetary policy front is, in my belief, to be a prime source of bearish fundamental pressure for the AUDUSD in 2013.

Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?

As always, any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the DailyFX Real Time News feed, or by following me on Stocktwits/Twitter @CVecchioFX.

I also host a weekly Live Trading Q&A in DailyFX Plus, on Tuesdays at 06:00 EDT / 10:00 GMT, in which I delve deeper into my positions and thought processes behind my analyses.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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