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Daily Observations: May 29, 2013

Daily Observations: May 29, 2013

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Current Positions:

- Flat

Closed Positions

- Short GBPUSD (1/2) from 1.5110 at 1.5015 for +95-pips.

- Short GBPUSD (1/2) from 1.5110 at 1.5110 for 0-pips.

Typical Time Frame: 1-day to 1-week

The short GBPUSD trade I was looking at on Monday only worked out half as well as I planned, hitting my first target at 1.5015 overnight and then reversing sharply off the lows, to knock me out on the other half of my trade at breakeven. I suppose the title of the trade idea was appropriate - "Short-term Selling Opportunity in GBPUSD to Start Last Week of May" - indeed the selling opportunity was only applicable through the first full trading day of the week.

For now, I am flat, although my attention is drawn to two pairs. First, the EURUSD is not only working on a major Head & Shoulders topping pattern, but also a more near-term Symmetrical Triangle that has bullish and bearish implications alike. I'm bearish as long as price holds below 1.3030, and ideally will be able to sell rallies into 1.2975/3000.

The other pair is the USDJPY, which is riding the ascending trendline off of the April 2 and May 2 lows, in conjunction with the 21-EMA, now at 101.00/15 (previously, I've said that the April 30 low should be the second reference point, but I've adjusted to take into account more recent price action). A break here eyes a deeper pullback towards 100.00 and even 97.50, while a hold and rally through 102.55/60 would suggest new highs.

Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?

As always, any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the DailyFX Real Time News feed, or by following me on Stocktwits/Twitter @CVecchioFX.

I also host a weekly Live Trading Q&A in DailyFX Plus, on Tuesdays at 07:15 EST / 12:15 GMT, in which I delve deeper into my positions and thought processes behind my analyses.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail

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