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Daily Observations: April 25, 2013

Daily Observations: April 25, 2013

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Current Positions:

- Flat

Typical Time Frame: 1-day to 1-week

Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?

The Aussie, Euro, and Sterling have had a tumultuous go of things lately and quite frankly, none of them are trading in ways that I prefer; there's a lack of full time frame continuity in the AUDUSD, EURUSD, and GBPUSD. My attention is on the USDJPY.

The USDJPY continues to consolidate in the apex of a Bullish Ascending Triangle (horizontal resistance at 99.80/100.00; diagonal support is tracing the 8-EMA at 99.15). Another possible outcome exists: a Bearish Double Top below 100.00. With the daily RSI uptrend intact, I am partial to the bullish outcome, which is reinforced by price remaining supported by the 8-EMA, now at 98.85/90. The Hammer yesterday at the 8-EMA bolsters the bullish case as well. Deeper pullbacks eye 97.60/65 (21-EMA) and 96.60.

AUDUSD

Daily: (8-EMA < 21-EMA) < 200-DMA = BEARISH

4H: 8-EMA > 21-EMA = BULLISH

1H: 8-EMA < 21-EMA = BEARISH

Position: Flat, waiting on 1H crossover for a sell signal

EURUSD

Daily: (8-EMA > 21-EMA) > 200-DMA = BULLISH

4H: 8-EMA = 21-EMA = NEUTRAL

1H: 8-EMA = 21-EMA = NEUTRAL

Position: Flat, waiting on daily crossover (structure is compressing)

GBPUSD

Daily: (8-EMA > 21-EMA) < 200-DMA = NEUTRAL

4H: 8-EMA > 21-EMA = BULLISH

1H: 8-EMA < 21-EMA = BULLISH

Position: FLAT, waiting on 1H crossover for a buy signal

USDJPY

Daily: (8-EMA > 21-EMA) > 200-DMA = BULLISH

4H: 8-EMA > 21-EMA = BULLISH

1H: 8-EMA < 21-EMA = BEARISH (close to flipping)

Position: Flat, waiting on 1H crossover for a buy signal

As always, any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the DailyFX Real Time News feed, or by following me on Stocktwits/Twitter @CVecchioFX.

I also host a weekly Live Trading Q&A in DailyFX Plus, on Tuesdays at 07:15 EST / 12:15 GMT, in which I delve deeper into my positions and thought processes behind my analyses.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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