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Daily Observations: March 28, 2013

Daily Observations: March 28, 2013

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Current Positions:


Recently Closed Positions:

- Exited Short EURUSD from 1.2938 at 1.3005 for -67-pips.

- Closed Short EURUSD (1/4) from 1.3142 at 1.2810 for +332-pips; equivalent to full position gain of +83-pips.

Typical Time Frame: 1-day to 1-week

The initial short EURUSD trade taken ahead of the Cypriot bailout was stopped out for -67-pips, but the retest of the daily 21-EMA triggered another sell on my part, with the position being closed today at 1.2810 for +332-pips. Although I see potential for the EURUSD to trade lower, a bullish 8-/21-EMA crossover on the hourly timeframe has diminished full time frame continuity momentum, trigger the "close" rule in my strategy. With both the 4H and daily timeframes offering bearish EMA crossovers, however, I remain open to reselling the EURUSD.

[Post-script addendum: the short EURUSD position from 1.3142 was not a full sized position; I only took a 1/4 size. Accordingly, weighted equivalently to the prior EURUSD loss of -67-pips, the winning trade was +83-pips.]

A quick update on trends in the other major pairs I'm watching, based on the 8-/21-EMA crossover system I'm using in these volatile markets:


Daily: 8-EMA > 21-EMA > 200-DMA = BULLSH

4H: 8-EMA < 21-EMA = BEARISH

1H: 8-EMA < 21-EMA = BEARISH

Position: Flat - full time frame continuity not achieved


Daily: 8-EMA < 21-EMA < 200-DMA = BEARISH

4H: 8-EMA < 21-EMA = BEARISH

1H: 8-EMA = 21-EMA = NEUTRAL

Position: Flat, waiting on 1H for a sell-signal


Daily: 8-EMA > 21-EMA > 200-DMA = BULLSH

4H: 8-EMA < 21-EMA = BEARISH

1H: 8-EMA < 21-EMA = BEARISH

Position: Flat - full time frame continuity not achieved

As always, any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the DailyFX Real Time News feed, or by following me on Stocktwits/Twitter @CVecchioFX.

I also host a weekly Live Trading Q&A in DailyFX Plus, on Tuesdays at 07:15 EST / 12:15 GMT, in which I delve deeper into my positions and thought processes behind my analyses.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.