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Daily Observations: March 01, 2013

Daily Observations: March 01, 2013

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Current Positions:

- Short GBPUSD from 1.5145 (1/2), Stop at 1.5225, Target 1 at 1.5000, Target 2 at 1.4840

Typical Time Frame: 1-day to 1-week

Recently Closed Positions:

- Closed Long USDJPY (1/4) from 90.35 at 91.85 for +150-pips.

- Closed Long EURCHF (1/2) from 1.2018 at 1.2218 for +200-pips; net gain +341-pips.

- Exited Short GBPUSD (1/2) from 1.5145 at 1.5220 for -75-pips.

The GBPUSD short taken as a result of the 8-/21-EMA hourly crossover signal (in conjunction with a bearish 8-/21-EMA crossover on both the 4H and daily timeframes) has been a bit of a rocky ride, considering that 1/2 of the position was stopped out yesterday at the exact high of the day. While this is frustrating, it underscores an important lesson: during volatile markets, it might be best to reduce leverage in order to give one's self some slack with stops. The other 1/2 of the position, whose stop was just 5-pips higher (at 1.5225 versus 1.5220) was never hit.

Now that the AUDUSD and the EURUSD have started to breakdown further, I'll be looking to resell rallies, so long as the 8-/21-EMA crossover system continues to point lower on the 4H and daily timeframes and volatility remains elevated - necessary conditions my momentum trading system.

As always, any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the Real Time Newsfeed, or by following me on twitter @CVecchioFX.

I also host a weekly Live Trading Q&A in DailyFX Plus, on Tuesdays at 07:15 EST / 12:15 GMT, in which I delve deeper into my positions and thought processes behind my analyses.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.