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Daily Observations: February 26, 2013

Daily Observations: February 26, 2013

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Current Positions:

- Long EURCHF from 1.2018 (1/2), Stop at 1.2218 (locked-in +200-pips), Target 2 at 1.2750

Time Frame: 1-day to 1-week

Recently Closed Positions:

- Closed Long USDJPY (1/4) from 90.35 at 91.85 for +150-pips.

Last week I said: "Heading flat into the weekend outside of the Long EURCHF and Long USDJPY positions, given Italian elections - not worth keeping any irons in the fire at this point in time. New positions in EURUSD, GBPUSD, and AUDUSD will be taken next week - looking to sell rallies across the board as the US budget sequester comes into the picture."

Now, with market sentiment broken thanks to, well, democracy in Italy, I am a US Dollar bull, and I am looking to get short AUDUSD, EURUSD, and GBPUSD on rallies.

Worth noting: breakout strategies are favored to range trading strategies. Moving averages have started to widen out as volatility increases, and with my momentum breakout systems aligned for further selling, I will be quite aggressive henceforth.

As always: waiting for the 8-EMA to cross below the 21-EMA on the hourly chart in AUDUSD, EURUSD, and GBPUSD again, as all three of these pairs (as well as the corresponding AUDJPY, EURJPY, and GBPJPY pairs) now have bearish 8-/21-EMA crossovers on the 4H and daily charts.

As always, any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the Real Time Newsfeed, or by following me on twitter @CVecchioFX.

I also host a weekly Live Trading Q&A in DailyFX Plus, on Tuesdays at 07:15 EST / 12:15 GMT, in which I delve deeper into my positions and thought processes behind my analyses.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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