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Daily Observations: February 18, 2013

Daily Observations: February 18, 2013

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Current Positions:

- Long EURCHF from 1.2018 (1/2), Stop at 1.2218 (locked-in +200-pips), Target 2 at 1.2750

- Long USDJPY from (1/4) 90.35, Stop at 91.85 (lock-in +150-pips), Target 2 at 93.30 HIT, Target 3 at 95.00

Time Frame: 1-day to 1-week

Recently Closed Positions:

- Exited Long EURAUD from 1.3005 at 1.2925 for -80-pips

- Exited Long EURGBP from 0.8615 at 0.8585 for -30-pips

- Closed Short GBPUSD from 1.5650 at 1.5485 for +165-pips

The Long EURAUD and Long EURGBP trades were exited at losses as Euro weakness was prevalent on Thursday and early-Friday, before both pairs ultimately rebounded. The losses were offset by the gains seen in the Short GBPUSD trade. While I still like EURAUD and EURGBP higher in 2013, I am partial to the notion that the upcoming Italian elections pose immeasurable risk at present time, considering how close the polls are; a Berlusconi victory would send the Euro tumbling across the board, from my perspectivce.

Accordingly, any sell-offs in EURAUD and EURGBP are opportunities to get long, while any rally in the GBPUSD is another opportunity to get short. The GBPUSD is most intriguing now that it has put in a weekly close below the ascending trendline off of the 2009 and 2010 low; a visit into the 1.4000s in the 2Q'13 should not be ruled out, especially if the US economy continues to improve - the Fed and the BoE would be moving in starkly opposite directions.

As always, any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the Real Time Newsfeed, or by following me on twitter @CVecchioFX.

I also host a weekly Live Trading Q&A in DailyFX Plus, on Tuesdays at 07:15 EST / 12:15 GMT, in which I delve deeper into my positions and thought processes behind my analyses.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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