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Daily Observations: January 25, 2013

Daily Observations: January 25, 2013

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Current Positions:

- Long EURCHF from 1.2018 (1/2), Stop at 1.2218 (locked-in +200-pips), Target 1 at 1.2500 HIT, Target 2 at 1.2750

- Long USDJPY from 90.35, Stop at 89.50, Target 1 at 91.10, Target 2 at 93.30, Target 3 at 95.00

Recently Closed Positions:

- Closed Short GBPUSD from 1.5865 at 1.5760 for +105-pips

Time Frame: 1-day to 1-week

I remain a long-term bear on both the British Pound and the Japanese Yen, as both currencies' central banks are moving towards more dovish policies, albeit of vary degrees. With that said, today's UK 4Q'12 GDP print aided the Short GBPUSD trade, and I will look to resell on rallies; the current mess the UK economy is in hasn't been fully priced into the British Pound, yet.

With the US Dollar not really playing the role of safe haven anymore - no doubt thanks to rising US Treasury yields - there are clear advantages and disadvantages to certain pairings. The Sterling and the Yen are the weakest currencies this year; the Euro and the New Zealand Dollar are among the strongest. Therefore, I prefer (when appropriate):

- Risk on: Long EURJPY, Long EURGBP, Long NZDJPY, Short GBPNZD

- Risk off: Short GBPUSD, Short GBPJPY, Short USDJPY

With the S&P 500 nearing critical topside resistance at 1505/1512, I expect there to be significant selling interest in the coming weeks (the Bearish Rising Wedge pattern off of the 2009 lows is only negated if a break to the upside is accompanied by surging volumes; this has not been the case). Accordingly, the next few weeks should be a bit more active on the trading front.

Any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the Real Time Newsfeed, or by following me on twitter @CVecchioFX.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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