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  • $ARKK down to a fresh three month low but finding some support on this confluent fibo level. If the rates theme continues could add more pressure here
  • tech side of the $USD forecast already starting to fill in with today's bullish breakout 😎
  • I just finished my USD 4Q fundamental forecast with @JStanleyFX (who did the techs) at the end of last week. Today certainly jazzes up my assessment
  • The S&P 500 has opened with a sharp gap lower while the Dollar pushes an 11 month high. DailyFX's @JohnKicklighter talks about volatility, debt limits, and Fed forecasts!
  • $SPX trying to hold support after failing at resistance yday $SPY $ES currently about 4% off of the all time high
  • Nasdaq tumbles 2% $NDX
  • The ICE's trade-weighted $DXY Dollar Index is at an 11 month high today. Notably, its largest component - $EURUSD - has not slipped the August low
  • Stocks extend fall, Dow Jones down 1% following worse-than-expected US Consumer Confidence #trading $DJIA
  • Big enough disappointment to heap onto the risk aversion but not bad enough to restart speculation of a delayed November taper from the FOMC. Net net, further bearish pressure on $SPX
  • The $SPX has opened today with its biggest bearish gap since last Monday's tumble. Officially squashes the recovery momentum and now we are more balanced in facing fundamental event risk - bullish or bearish
Daily Observations: January 18, 2013

Daily Observations: January 18, 2013

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Current Positions:

- Short AUDUSD from 1.0540, Stop at 1.0520 (locked-in +20-pips), Target 1 at 1.0470, Target 2 at 1.0400

- Long EURCHF from 1.2018 (1/2), Stop at 1.2218 (locked-in +200-pips), Target 1 at 1.2500 HIT, Target 2 at 1.2750

Recently Closed Positions

- Closed Long EURCAD from 1.3155 at 1.3190 for +35-pips

- Closed Long EURCHF (1/2) from 1.2018 at 1.2500 for +482-pips

Time Frame: 1-day to 1-week

The Long EURCHF trade continues to work out, finally hitting my first target at 1.2500 after a very patient 11 months. My Stop has been moved up accordingly to lock-in +200-pips. I'll monitor this one closely if the pair reverses off of 1.2500 too quickly. I anticipate rebuying the EURCHF lower.

The Short AUDUSD position continues to trade favorably as market participants proved uninspired by well-telegraphed 4Q'12 Chinese GDP figure last night, and the US Dollar strength that is burgeoning alongside equity market strength could prove to weigh on the pair. I'm looking lower, but with the downtrend from overnight close to breaking, I've moved up my Stop with intent to resell a run at the highs this week.

Read my thoughts on the Japanese Yen here.

Any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the Real Time Newsfeed, or by following me on twitter @CVecchioFX.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail

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