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  • The Euro is under pressure this morning following surprisingly dovish comments from ECB’s Knot, going against his typically more hawkish stance. Get your $EURUSD market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/ySbYLIAvM5 https://t.co/KLEP03REcm
  • US equities hovering near session lows in wake of the FOMC statement and press conference from Fed Chair Powell. The S&P 500 Index is currently trading -2.7% lower with 30-minutes to go until the close. $SPX $SPY $ES_F #Stocks https://t.co/pT56yQF4md
  • Fed Chair Powell: -Have not made decision on removing bank restrictions -Some housing tightness is passing phenomenon -Large increases in home prices unlikely to be sustained -Corporate defaults have been fewer than expected -We haven't seen as much scarring as we feared
  • Fed Chair Powell: -Emergency lending facilities were very helpful to economy -Haven't talked with US Treasury about emergency tools
  • Federal Reserve holds its policy interest rate and pace of asset purchases steady as expected. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @RichardSnowFX here:https://t.co/8CIIMYDUtr https://t.co/0U48GH20aM
  • Fed Chair Powell: -World has been struggling with disinflationary forces for a while -US inflation dynamics won't change much over near term -More concerned about recovery than pickup in inflation -Inflation resembling past decades seems unlikely
  • Fed Chair Powell: -Talk of tapering asset purchases is premature -Just too early to be talking about dates on tapering bond buying plans -Tapering would be gradual when we do it -Whole focus on exit is premature $SPX $NDX $DJI $USD $DXY $XAUUSD $TNX
  • Fed Chair Powell: -Pandemic, new virus strains still provide considerable downside risks -Will take quite a while to get to herd immunity -Vaccine rollout likely to be a struggle -Nothing more important to economy now than vaccinations
  • Fed Chair Powell: -Coming months' rise in inflation will be transient -We will be patient and not react when we see modest bumps in inflation -Very unlikely that we'll see troubling inflation -Not going to adopt a formula on inflation
  • Fed Chair Powell: -Financial vulnerabilities are 'moderate' right now overall -Asset prices have recently been driven by vaccines, fiscal steps -Link between interest rates and asset prices not so strong
Daily Observations: December 11, 2012

Daily Observations: December 11, 2012

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Current Positions:

- Long EURCHF from 1.2018, Stop at 1.1990, Target 1 at 1.2500, Target 2 at 1.2750

- Long USDJPY from 80.65 (1/2), Stop at 82.05 (daily close), Target 2 at 83.30

Recently Closed Positions:

- Closed Short EURUSD (1/2) from 1.3110 at 1.3030 for +80-pips.

- Closed Short EURUSD (1/2) from 1.3110 at 1.2905 for +205-pips.

Time Frame: 1-day to 1-week

Bottom line: looking to sell US Dollar strength ahead of the Fed meeting tomorrow, in particular against high beta (AUD, CAD, NZD). Also attempting to sell Euro rallies against high beta given outcome of ECB Rate Decision and Italian PM Monti resigning.

I will be looking long USD following Chairman Bernanke's press conference, as I imagine that the AUDUSD (1.0610/30), EURUSD (1.3110/30), and S&P 500 (1435) will be near key resistance levels if the market has a reactionary move higher (key levels in parentheses), which should be sold as the market begins "pricing in" the next major fundamental catalyst.

Any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the Real Time Newsfeed, or by following me on twitter @CVecchioFX.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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