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Daily Observations: December 7, 2012

Daily Observations: December 7, 2012

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Current Positions:

- Long EURCHF from 1.2018, Stop at 1.1990, Target 1 at 1.2500, Target 2 at 1.2750

- Long USDJPY from 80.65 (1/2), Stop at 82.05 (daily close), Target 2 at 83.30

Recently Closed Positions:

- Closed Short EURUSD (1/2) from 1.3110 at 1.3030 for +80-pips.

- Closed Short EURUSD (1/2) from 1.3110 at 1.2905 for +205-pips.

Time Frame: 1-day to 1-week

The Short EURUSD trade initiated on Tuesday and closed out today worked out nicely, averaging a net gain of +142.5-pips. It appears to be 5 waves down from the December high, so we should be looking to sell any rebounds.

I've adjusted the Stop on the Long USDJPY position to lock in +140-pips. Ideally, I'd like to be able to get new entries on a retest of 80.50/70.

Keep in mind that the Federal Reserve meets on December 12, where it is widely anticipated a QE3-Extension or QE4 program will be announced to take the place of the expiring Operation Twist, the maturities extension program (MEP) in place since June 2011, which expanded the Fed's balance sheet at a pace of $45 billion per month (selling short-term securities for those with longer durations). This discussion will take place irrespective of the November NFPs, reducing their signficance even further. This could be a "buy the rumor, sell the news" event, if the only measures taken are extending the low rates language into 2015 and expanding the size of the QE3 asset purchases.

Any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the Real Time Newsfeed, or by following me on twitter @CVecchioFX.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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