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Daily Observations: December 5, 2012

Daily Observations: December 5, 2012

2012-12-05 16:45:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Current Positions:

- Long EUR/CHF from 1.2018, Stop at 1.1990, Target 1 at 1.2500, Target 2 at 1.2750

- Short EUR/USD from 1.3110, Stop at 1.3150, Target 1 at 1.3030, Target 2 at 1.2990

- Long USD/JPY from 80.65 (1/2), Stop at 80.75 (daily close), Target 2 at 83.30

Time Frame: 1-day to 1-week

Today was a volatile today - first up, then down after the US cash equity open, then back up big by market close - but I maintain my positions nevertheless. My biases haven't changed at all.

However, I am starting to explore the idea of a "fundamentally overbought" Australian Dollar, given the fact that the highest yielding currency covered by DailyFX Research is quite buoyant following the Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut. The cut was mostly priced in, I believe - swaps were suggesting a 92% chance of a 25-bps cut - but the 3Q'12 GDP figure from yesterday was soft, and I'm not convinced that this slowdown in the Australian housing market is just the ebb and flow of the market. Ideally, given the major technical pattern close to breaking to the upside in the AUD/USD - a Symmetrical Triangle dating back to July 2011 - a false, first move up towards 1.0600 or even 1.0850 could result, before the big move lower back towards 0.9000 (thinking long-term: six to twelve months out).

Any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the Real Time Newsfeed, or by following me on twitter @CVecchioFX.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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