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Daily Observations: November 17, 2012

Daily Observations: November 17, 2012

2012-11-17 02:06:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

Current Positions:

- Long AUD/USD from 1.0318, Stop at 1.0280, Target 1 at 1.0395

- Long EUR/CHF from 1.2018, Stop at 1.1990, Target 1 at 1.2500, Target 2 at 1.2750

- Long USD/JPY from 80.65, Stop at 80.45, Target 1 at 81.75, Target 2 at 83.30

Time Frame: 1-day to 1-week

Recently Closed Positions:

- Closed Short AUD/CAD from 1.0455 at 1.0345 for +110-pips

- Closed Long EUR/USD (1/2) from 1.2720 at 1.2790 for +70-pips, Stop moved to BE on remaing position

- Exited Long EUR/USD (1/2) from 1.2720 at 1.2720 for 0-pips.

I wasn't liking price action in AUD/USD and USD/CAD yesterday (suggesting to me a countertrend move), so I closed out the AUD/CAD a bit early for a gain of +110-pips. The EUR/USD long hit its Target 1 at 1.2790 (topped at 1.2800/05), triggering half of the position to be closed, and the remaining half to trade with a Stop at the entry of 1.2790. The pullback during European trading today forced me to exit the trade at my entry.

My daily Stop on my AUD/USD long wasn't triggered, saving this trade by a hair. Nevertheless, with late-day developments out of Washington boosting risk-appetite, it appears that compromise is the gameplan for the time being, making a resolution of sorts (either an extension to mid-2013 or a complete resolution) possible. If news over the weekend is positive, it could provide a boost further at the Sunday open. A move lower to start the week will be worrisome and would suggest more active trade management.

Any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the Real Time Newsfeed, or by following me on twitter @CVecchioFX.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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