News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Daily Observations: October 3, 2012

Daily Observations: October 3, 2012

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Current Positions:

- Long NZDUSD from 0.8195, Stop at 0.8170, Target 1 at 0.8300

- Long EURCHF from 1.2018, Stop at 1.1990, Target 1 at 1.2500, Target 2 at 1.2750

Pending Positions:

- Pending Long USDJPY daily close >80.65

Closed Positions:

- Long AUDUSD from 1.0422 stopped at 1.0322 for -100-pips.

- AUDUSDIndeed the Falling Wedge was a false breakout, with the pair breaking through major support yesterday. Resistance comes in at 1.0275, 1.0330, 1.0405/25 (mid-August swing lows), and 1.0470/85 (former intraday swing levels). Support comes in at 1.0160/75 (mid-July and early-September swing levels), 1.0100/10, and 1.0000. Bias: bearish below 1.0250/70.

- EURUSD: Little has changed the past few days: “The pair…found support near the 200-DMA, which remains the first major level of downside support. If this level holds, we look towards the 61.8% Fibo retracement (February 2012 high to the July 2012 low) at 1.2934 again, though a subsequent rejection would signal a third test of the mid- to low-1.2800s again. Interim support comes in at 1.2820/55 (20-EMA, 200-DMA, late-April swing high). Resistance lies at 1.2930/35, 1.3000, 1.3145, and 1.3165/75 (September high).” Bias: bullish above 1.2935.

- GBPUSD: The GBPUSD fell into major support today, again, at 1.6100/20 (20-EMA, descending trendline off of April 2011 and August 2011 highs, ascending trendline off of August 2 and August 31 lows). A break below suggests a move to 1.5970/75 (former channel resistance off of June 20 and August 23 highs), and 1.5770/85 (late-August swing lows. Resistance comes in at 1.6165/80 (late-September and early-October intraday swing levels), 1.6260 (the former April swing highs by close) and 1.6300 (by high). Bias: bullish above 1.6100/20.

- USDJPY: On Monday I said “With price holding above 77.65/70 by close on Friday, scope for gains into 77.90 and 78.10/20 are well-within reason.” Today we’re back to 78.10/20, and a daily close above eyes resistance at 78.40/60 (50-EMA), 78.80/90 (100-DMA, descending trendline off of the April 20 and June 25 highs), and 79.20/30 (200-DMA, September high). Should price close at or below 78.10/20, support comes in at 77.90, 77.40/45 (September 28 low), 77.65/70 (June 1 low) 77.45/50, and 77.10/15 (September low). Bias: flat.

Any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the Real Time Newsfeed, or by following me on twitter @CVecchioFX.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to cvecchio@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES