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Daily Observations: October 3, 2012

Daily Observations: October 3, 2012

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Current Positions:

- Long NZDUSD from 0.8195, Stop at 0.8170, Target 1 at 0.8300

- Long EURCHF from 1.2018, Stop at 1.1990, Target 1 at 1.2500, Target 2 at 1.2750

Pending Positions:

- Pending Long USDJPY daily close >80.65

Closed Positions:

- Long AUDUSD from 1.0422 stopped at 1.0322 for -100-pips.

- AUDUSDIndeed the Falling Wedge was a false breakout, with the pair breaking through major support yesterday. Resistance comes in at 1.0275, 1.0330, 1.0405/25 (mid-August swing lows), and 1.0470/85 (former intraday swing levels). Support comes in at 1.0160/75 (mid-July and early-September swing levels), 1.0100/10, and 1.0000. Bias: bearish below 1.0250/70.

- EURUSD: Little has changed the past few days: “The pair…found support near the 200-DMA, which remains the first major level of downside support. If this level holds, we look towards the 61.8% Fibo retracement (February 2012 high to the July 2012 low) at 1.2934 again, though a subsequent rejection would signal a third test of the mid- to low-1.2800s again. Interim support comes in at 1.2820/55 (20-EMA, 200-DMA, late-April swing high). Resistance lies at 1.2930/35, 1.3000, 1.3145, and 1.3165/75 (September high).” Bias: bullish above 1.2935.

- GBPUSD: The GBPUSD fell into major support today, again, at 1.6100/20 (20-EMA, descending trendline off of April 2011 and August 2011 highs, ascending trendline off of August 2 and August 31 lows). A break below suggests a move to 1.5970/75 (former channel resistance off of June 20 and August 23 highs), and 1.5770/85 (late-August swing lows. Resistance comes in at 1.6165/80 (late-September and early-October intraday swing levels), 1.6260 (the former April swing highs by close) and 1.6300 (by high). Bias: bullish above 1.6100/20.

- USDJPY: On Monday I said “With price holding above 77.65/70 by close on Friday, scope for gains into 77.90 and 78.10/20 are well-within reason.” Today we’re back to 78.10/20, and a daily close above eyes resistance at 78.40/60 (50-EMA), 78.80/90 (100-DMA, descending trendline off of the April 20 and June 25 highs), and 79.20/30 (200-DMA, September high). Should price close at or below 78.10/20, support comes in at 77.90, 77.40/45 (September 28 low), 77.65/70 (June 1 low) 77.45/50, and 77.10/15 (September low). Bias: flat.

Any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the Real Time Newsfeed, or by following me on twitter @CVecchioFX.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to cvecchio@dailyfx.com

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