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Daily Observations: September 28, 2012

Daily Observations: September 28, 2012

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Current Positions:

- Long AUDUSD from net 1.0422 (1.0525, 1.0455, 1.0421, 1.0435, 1.0390), Stop at daily close <1.0395, Target 1 at 1.0615, Target 2 at 1.0670, Target 3 at 1.0800

- Long EURCHF from 1.2018, Stop at 1.1990, Target 1 at 1.2500, Target 2 at 1.2750

Pending Positions:

- Pending Long USDJPY daily close >80.65

- AUDUSD: The Falling Wedge – a reversal pattern – off the September 14 high broke to the upside yesterday, triggering a run up to the 1.0470s before the pair has pulled back today. With the pattern now initiated, a test of the September highs comes into focus early next week. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.0470/85 (daily high, former intraday swing levels). Interim support comes in at 1.0415/25 (20-EMA, mid-August swing lows, Falling Wedge breakout level), 1.0370/85 (descending trendline off of the August 9 and August 23 highs, 50-EMA), and 1.0325/40. Bias: bullish above 1.0250/70.

- EURUSD: The bounce at the 200-DMA yesterday was to be expected, considering it was the first major level of downside support. Now the EURUSD must figure out if its correction is over or this was just an ideal opportunity to take profits on short positions. The pair is testing the 61.8% Fibo retracement (February 2012 high to the July 2012 low) at 1.2934 again, though a rejection would suggest a move towards the mid-1.2800s again. Near-term support comes in at 1.2920 (5-EMA) and 1.2820/55 (20-EMA, 200-DMA, late-April swing high). Interim resistance lies at 1.2930/35, 1.3000, 1.3145, and 1.3165/75 (September high). Bias: bullish above 1.2935.

- GBPUSD: The GBPUSD has been stuck in a tight consolidation the past two-weeks, leaving our levels unchanged from yesterday. “The former April swing highs at 1.6260 (by close), 1.6300 (by high) are in focus, now that the descending trendline off of the April 2011 and August 2011 highs broke last week. Below 1.6120/40 support comes in at 1.6095/1.6100 (20-EMA), 1.5970 (ascending trendline off of August 2 and August 31 lows, former channel resistance off of June 20 and August 23 highs), and 1.5770/85 (late-August swing lows).” Bias: bullish above 1.6140.

- USDJPY: Nothing has changed from yesterday: “Price hovers near the key 77.65/70 level, a major level of support considering it was the June 1 swing low that held for three-months. A daily close above this level eyes resistance at 77.90, 78.10/20, 78.60, 78.90/95 (100-DMA, descending trendline off of the April 20 and June 25 highs), and 79.20/30 (200-DMA, September high). Should price close at or below 77.65/70, support comes in at 77.45/50, and 77.10/15 (September low).” Bias: bearish.

Any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the Real Time Newsfeed, or by following me on twitter @CVecchioFX.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to cvecchio@dailyfx.com

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