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Daily Observations: September 19, 2012

Daily Observations: September 19, 2012

2012-09-19 12:15:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Current Positions:

- Long AUDUSD from net 1.0454 (1.0525, 1.0455, 1.0421, 1.0435), Stop at 1.0395, Target 1 at 1.0615, Target 2 at 1.0670, Target 3 at 1.0800

- Long EURCHF from 1.2018, Stop at 1.1990, Target 1 at 1.2500, Target 2 at 1.2750

- Long USDJPY from 77.92 (1/2), Stop at 77.92, Target 1 at 79.10/30, Target 2 at 80.60/65

Pending Positions:

- Pending Long USDJPY daily close >80.65

- AUDUSD: The muddle lower continues, although the pair is finding support in a classic manner – at former resistance. The descending trendline off of the August 9 and August 23 highs has kept the pair supported the past two-days, and with the 20-DMA overlapping at 1.0415/20, a base could be building for the next move higher. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.0480/85, 1.0550/60, 1.0600/15 (August high) and 1.0630. Should we see a rally up towards 1.0600 again, another failure would mark a Double Top (or Triple Top, if being liberal with the definition) and signal a push for a test of 1.0250/70 (ascending trendline off of the June 1 and September 6 lows) then 1.0200/05 (100-DMA). Support comes in at 1.0425/45 (swing zone on 4-hour chart back to July 19), 1.0410/20 (descending trendline off of the August 9 and August 23 highs, 20-DMA, mid-August swing lows), 1.0325 (200-DMA), and 1.0250/70. Bias: bullish above 1.0250/70.

- EURUSD: Little has changed over the past 24-hours, though the pair has traded into a region of soft support as the daily RSI comes out of overbought territory: The EURUSD continues to pullback from its 76.4% Fibonacci retracement on the February 2012 high to the July 2012 low at 1.3145, closing below the key ratio for the second consecutive day on Monday. Near-term resistance lies at 1.3145, 1.3165/70, 1.3240, 1.3265/85, and 1.3360. It is possible that a long-term bottom is now in at the 1.2040/45 low set in late-July. Interim support comes in at 1.3015/20 (5-EMA), 1.2930/35, and 1.2820/30 (200-DMA, late-April swing high). Bias: bullish above 1.3020/25.

- GBPUSD: The Inside Day noted yesterday has yielded to a pullback, though the 5-EMA (1.6195/1.6200) remains unscathed thus far – the sharp uptrend is very much still in play. Beyond this, little has changed over the past several days: “The key 1.6120/40 level cracked with ease on Friday and our bias looks longer for the foreseeable future. The weekly close above said level opens the door for a move towards 1.6400 in the coming days. The former April swing highs at 1.6260 (by close), 1.6300 (by high) are in focus, now that the descending trendline off of the April 2011 and August 2011 highs broke last week. Below 1.5930/40, near-term support comes in at 1.5860/75 (ascending trendline off of August 2 and August 31 lows), 1.5770/85 (late-August swing lows), and 1.5700.” Bias: bullish above 1.6140.

- USDJPY: The USDJPY has rallied further today after the BoJ’s newest stimulus measures. A close above 78.60 leaves open the possibility for 79.10/30 (100-DMA, 200-DMA, descending trendline off of the April 20 and June 25 highs) – the pair has already rallied into and failed at these levels today. A close below 78.60 has interim support at 78.10/20, 77.90, 77.65/70 (June 1 low), 77.45/50, and 77.10/15 (September low).

Any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the Real Time Newsfeed, or by following me on twitter @CVecchioFX.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to cvecchio@dailyfx.com

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