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Daily Observations: September 10, 2012

Daily Observations: September 10, 2012

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Current Positions:

- Short AUDUSD from 1.0380, Stop at 1.0420, Target 1 at 1.0240, Target 2 at 1.0170

- Long EURCHF from 1.2018, Stop at 1.1990, Target 1 at 1.2500, Target 2 at 1.2750

- Long USDCHF from 0.9454, Stop at 0.9395, Target 1 at 0.9540, Target 2 at 0.9700

- Long USDJPY from 78.58, Target 1 at 79.60, Target 2 at 80.60/65

Pending Positions:

- Pending Long USDJPY daily close >80.65

- AUDUSD: The AUDUSD has pulled back to respect a former channel, reversing some of its gains on the Chinese stimulus measures announced last week. Accordingly, topside resistance comes in at 1.0350/55 (20-DMA), 1.0365/70 (channel resistance) and 1.0410/20 (mid-August swing lows). A breakdown eyes 1.0275/1.0300, 1.0210/25, and 1.0160/75 (weekly low). Bias: bearish.

- EURUSD: The EURUSD made a huge technical breakthrough on Friday by shattering a yearlong descending trendline off of the August 2011 and October 2011 highs. This now marks the potential for a long-term bottom at the 1.2040/45 low. Additionally, while our bias for a move towards 1.1500 by November 1 is negated, a weekly close back within the channel – back below 1.2620/35 (former yearly low set in January) – would suggest a false breakout has occurred. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.2820/25 (late-May swing highs) and 1.2980/1.3000. Support comes in at 1.2740/50, 1.2620/35, 1.2500/10, and 1.2460/80. Bias: bullish.

- GBPUSD: The GBPUSD has steadied after breaking topside channel resistance last week, sitting at the psychologically significant 1.6000 exchange rate. As long as price on the daily chart is supported by 1.5930/40, there’s reason to believe that a run up to 1.6120/40 is possible during September. Above 1.6120/40, the former April swing highs at 1.6260 (by close), 1.6300 (by high) are in focus; this would also represent a break of the descending trendline off of the April 2011 and August 2011 highs. Below 1.5930/40, near-term support comes in at 1.5860/75 (ascending trendline off of August 2 and August 31 lows), 1.5770/85 (late-August swing lows), and 1.5700. Bias: bullish above 1.5770/90.

- USDJPY: Weak US jobs data on Friday stung the pair, dropping to back to key 78.10/20 support, an area that has held since the beginning of August. 78.60 remains our line in the sand for bullish/bearish price action: a daily close above 78.60 suggests a move back towards 79.15/30 (100-DMA, 200-DMA, descending trendline off of the April 20 and June 25 highs); a daily close below 78.60 keeps 78.10/20 in focus, while penetration of the August low at 77.90 will likely result in a washout to new lows with the potential for 77.65/70 and 77.30. Bias: neutral.

Any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the Real Time Newsfeed, or by following me on twitter @CVecchioFX.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to cvecchio@dailyfx.com

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