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Daily Observations: August 27, 2012

Daily Observations: August 27, 2012

2012-08-27 12:04:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:

Current Positions:

- Long EURCHF from 1.2018, Stop at 1.1990, Target 1 at 1.2500, Target 2 at 1.2750

- Long EURUSD (1/4) from 1.2469, Stop at daily close <1.2405, Target 1 at 1.2680, Target 2 at 1.2760

- Long USDJPY from 78.58, Target 1 at 79.60, Target 2 at 80.60/65

Pending Positions:

- Pending Long USDJPY daily close >80.65

- Pending Short EURUSD daily close <1.2200/20

- AUDUSD: The close below 1.0435/40 on Friday suggests that the ascending channel in place since mid-June has broken to the downside, thus confirming our short-term view that a top has been put in place after multiple failures above 1.0600. Accordingly, given the descending channel off of the August 9 high, we will proceed to sell rallies in the AUDUSD. A daily close below former trendline support at 1.0440/50 today is crucial for sustained losses. A close above said level brings into focus 1.0480. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.0440/50 (channel support dating back to June, 200-SMA on 4-hour chart), 1.0480, 1.0530/45 (former swing highs), and 1.0600/15 (August high). Should we see a rally up towards 1.0600 again, another failure would market a Double Top and signal a push for a test of 1.0200/05 (100-DMA). Bias: bearish.

- EURUSD: On Friday I wrote “The EURUSD’s…gains should persist, though we have slightly altered our outlook: while the ascending channel off of the July 24 and August 2 lows remain, it is possible that it a Wedge has formed. Resistance was hit [on Thursday] at 1.2560 (a level noted on Wednesday for the first time), and a daily close above said level will be necessary for further gains. Similarly, the Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern off of the low is in play. Given the Head at 1.2040/45, this would draw into focus 1.2760 as long as price holds above 1.2405. Interim resistance comes in at 1.2560, 1.2615/20 (channel resistance, 100-DMA), and 1.2680 (long-term descending channel resistance). Near-term support comes in at 1.2500, 1.2440/45 (former swing highs), 1.2405 (Neckline), 1.2310/30, 1.2250/65, and 1.2155/70.” Bias: cautiously bullish.

- GBPUSD: Price continues to pullback from recent highs, though by no means is the GBPUSD’s bull run complete. Instead, we find that the pair has entered a short-term period of consolidation. Key levels for the near-term are 1.5880/1.5900 to the upside and 1.5770 to the downside; we are also becoming overextended on shorter-term charts, suggesting that another failure at 1.5900 could lead to profit taking before further bullish price action. A daily close below 1.5770 should lead to a drop into 1.5700/20. Beyond that, support comes in at 1.5635/40 (last week’s low), and 1.5625 (ascending trendline support off of August 6 and August 10 lows). A daily close above 1.5900 points towards 1.5985. Bias: bullish above 1.5770.

- USDJPY: The USDJPY continues to meander higher after its precipitous plummet on Wednesday, and finds itself holding above crucial 78.60 support, former June swing lows and a level of resistance for most of July. For now, this is the most important level: potential exists for a rally back into 79.10/20 as long as 78.60 holds, whereas a daily close below suggests a move towards 78.10/20 at the minimum. Penetration of the August low at 77.90 will likely result in a washout to new lows with the potential for 77.65/70 and 77.30. Bias: bullish.

Any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the Real Time Newsfeed, or by following me on twitter @CVecchioFX.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to cvecchio@dailyfx.com

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