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Daily Observations: August 22, 2012

Daily Observations: August 22, 2012

2012-08-22 11:59:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:

Current Positions:

- Short AUDNZD from 1.3060, Stop at 1.3080, Target 1 at 1.2850

- Short AUDUSD from 1.0510, Stop at Entry, Target 1 at 1.0410

- Long EURCHF from 1.2018, Stop at 1.1990, Target 1 at 1.2500, Target 2 at 1.2750

- Long EURUSD (1/4) from 1.2469, Stop at daily close <1.2405, Target 1 at 1.2680, Target 2 at 1.2760

- Short GBPJPY from 124.50, Stop at 125.80, Target 1 123.85, Target 2 at 121.50

- Long USDJPY from 79.28, Stop at daily close <79.20/25, Target 1 at 79.60, Target 2 at 80.60/65

Pending Positions:

- Pending Long USDJPY daily close >80.65

- Pending Short EURUSD daily close <1.2200/20

- AUDNZD: Last Tuesday I wrote: “The pair has moved higher thus far today, after back-to-back Inverted Hammers after a decline, signaling a potential reversal over the coming days; this could negatively impact the short taken.” Indeed, a move higher as transpired before Target 1 was hit; we nonetheless remain short as we view this as merely a pause lower; rallies into 1.3005 should be sold. As per the original trade plan, on a test of 1.2850, I will take 1/2 profit and then resell rallies back into 1.2920/30. With my Stop at breakeven (1.3060), the current position is insulated from losses. Given the divergence between the AUD and the NZD recently, I’m looking to sell further rallies in this pair. Bias: bearish.

- AUDUSD: Failure above 1.0485/95 yesterday leads us to believe that the rally off of the recent low (and move to new August lows) keeps the short-term bearish perspective in place (though given pressure to the upside, we caution that a Bull Flag may be in place off of the August 9 high at 1.0613). At current price, daily support comes in at 1.0435/45 1.0400/10 (channel support dating back to June, 200-SMA on 4-hour chart) and 1.0380/85. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.0480, 1.0535/45 (former swing highs), 1.0580, 1.0600/15 (August high) and 1.0630. Should we see a rally up towards 1.0600 again, another failure would market a Double Top and signal a push for a test of 1.0195/1.0200 (100-DMA). Bias: bearish.

- EURUSD: Finally, resolution! The EURUSD closed above the key 1.2405 and 1.2440/45 levels, signaling that further gains are likely, at least on a technical basis. Accordingly, the Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern off of the low is in play. Given the Head at 1.2040/45, this would draw into focus 1.2760 as long as price holds above 1.2405. Interim resistance comes in at 1.2500, 1.2560, 1.2625, and 1.2680. Near-term support comes in at 1.2440/45, 1.2405, 1.2310/30, 1.2250/65, and 1.2155/70. Bias: cautiously bullish.

- GBPUSD: Resistance has broken in the short-term channel at 1.5770, opening up room for a run towards 1.5880/1.5900. This is the first close above both the 100-DMA and the 200-DMA since mid-May. Near-term support comes in at 1.5685/90 (10-DMA), 1.5635/40 (last week’s low), and 1.5625 (ascending trendline support off of August 6 and August 10 lows). Bias: bullish above 1.5770.

- USDJPY: The USDJPY continues to come off the recent highs, as expected, given the short-term technical congestion that materialized. As long as prices closes above 79.20/25 (200-DMA), near-term resistance is in focus at 79.50/70 (August high, 100-DMA). A move about said level brings into focus the Neckline on the Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern at 80.60/65 (former swing highs in May and June). Interim support comes in at 79.15/20, 78.60 (former swing lows) and 78.10/20 (lows from last week). Bias: bullish.

Any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the Real Time Newsfeed, or by following me on twitter @CVecchioFX.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to cvecchio@dailyfx.com

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