News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Citi Economic Surprise Index tracking the US just turned negative for the first time since June 2020 This means economists are now overestimating the health and vigor of the economy, opening the door to disappointment ahead This does note bode well for NFPs next week...
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.00% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.04% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.05% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.09% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.13% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.15% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/yZQPhHsvEr
  • Heads Up:🇸🇬 Unemployment Rate Prel (Q2) due at 02:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 2.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-30
  • Amazon Earnings Cast a Shadow on Nasdaq 100. APAC Stocks to Open Mixed https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/07/30/Amazon-Earnings-Cast-a-Shadow-on-Nasdaq-100-APAC-Stocks-to-Open-Mixed.html https://t.co/R5aoytGQvQ
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.22%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 77.28%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/DdoKAC3hFV
  • Delta Variant accounts for 92% of new Covid cases in the US https://t.co/Ub43kJfk3L
  • Crude oil prices are trading largely unchanged following last week's rebound as the Delta variant of Covid and Chinese regulatory measures temper the near-term demand outlook. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/T3oQa9qksd https://t.co/WdLYBIYQKU
  • The British Pound could remain vulnerable against the US Dollar while perhaps looking to push higher against the Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/9iZa4oE4WQ https://t.co/wyhhb4Jqxa
  • Hang Seng Index Futures at Key Inflection Point, Top to Resume? - #HSI1! chart https://t.co/dYgRPKhc9h
  • Amazon Q2 Earnings: -EPS at $15.12, versus $12.28 estimate (23% higher) -Revenue at $113 billion, versus $115 billion estimate (1.7% lower) -Share price tumbled 7% during after-hours trade as the company reported a slight revenue miss and gave weak third-quarter guidance
Daily Observations: August 16, 2012

Daily Observations: August 16, 2012

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Current Positions:

- Short AUDNZD from 1.3060, Stop at 1.3080, Target 1 at 1.2850

- Long EURAUD from 1.1680, Stop at 1.1660, Target 1 at 1.1720

- Long EURCHF from 1.2018, Stop at 1.1990, Target 1 at 1.2500, Target 2 at 1.2750

- Short EURGBP from 0.7942, Stop at 0.8000, Target 1 at 0.7820, Target 2 at 0.7750

- Long USDJPY from 78.72, Stop at 77.60, Target 1 at 79.40, Target 2 at 80.60

Pending Positions:

- Pending Short AUDUSD 1.0535/45

- Pending Long USDJPY daily close >80.65

- Pending Long EURUSD daily close >1.2400/05

- Pending Short EURUSD daily close <1.2200/20

- AUDNZD: Last Tuesday I wrote: “The pair has moved higher thus far today, after back-to-back Inverted Hammers after a decline, signaling a potential reversal over the coming days; this could negatively impact the short taken.” Indeed, a move higher as transpired before Target 1 was hit; we nonetheless remain short as we view this as merely a pause lower; rallies into 1.3005 should be sold. As per the original trade plan, on a test of 1.2850, I will take 1/2 profit and then resell rallies back into 1.2920/30. With my Stop at breakeven (1.3060), the current position is insulated from losses. Given the divergence between the AUD and the NZD recently, I’m looking to sell further rallies in this pair. Bias: bearish.

- AUDUSD: The top that we posited that was forming on the 4-hour charts is close to being confirmed, now that prices have broken below 1.0500; ideally, a daily close below 1.0435/40 (August low) would confirm. At current price, near-term support comes in at 1.0435/45 and 1.0380/85, though with shorter-term timeframes showing exhaustion, we suspect a bounce could be had first. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.0480/1.0500, 1.0535/45 (former swing highs), 1.0580, 1.0600/15 (August high) and 1.0630. Bias: bearish.

- EURAUD: Yesterday I entered a long EURAUD position (as per the morning webinar) at 1.1680, looking for a small bounce given the pair’s descent into oversold RSI territory on the hourly chart and former swing levels on the hourly chart. I am only looking for +40.0-pips here, so this trade, given price action thus far today and current price (1.1704), might be hit sometime this morning. Overall, I like this lower, from a macro-basis; this is merely a scalping play. Bias: bullish.

- EURUSD: More sideways to downside price action in the EURUSD as the pair trickles lower amid thin trading conditions. The rally off of the July 24 low appeared to be corrective in nature, with three waves evident from the bottom (A-B-C correction). However, despite declines from the highs, we suspect that there is some support upcoming, given the ascending trendline off of the July 24 and August 2 lows, as well as former swing lows, at 1.2250/65. Any rally from this area should be sold; it is possible that a rebound here would mark a Bull Flag on the daily chart. Overall, however, we look for one more new low near the 2010 low of 1.1875 before the start of the next major bull leg (towards 1.3000). A drop towards 1.1695-1.1875 remains likely by mid-September. Interim resistance comes in at 1.2310/30, 1.2400/05, and 1.2440/45. Near-term support comes in at 1.2250/65, 1.2155/70, and 1.2130/35. The Inverse Head & Shoulders (Head at 1.2040/45, Neckline at 1.2400/05, Measured Move 1.2750/60) remains a potential outcome. Bias: bearish.

- GBPJPY: The pair traded into critical 123.65/85 resistance yesterday on the 4-hour chart and although a small pullback was experienced, the GBPJPY has rocketed higher today. However, given the confluence of resistance close above (124.60), I think that this trade might be worth sticking with. Accordingly, there is growing bearish RSI divergence on the hourly chart. Stop is open ended as I’m playing this by ear and feeling out the market amid the rapid climb of the USDJPY alongside a relatively steady GBPUSD.

- GBPUSD: The muddle sideways continues, leaving little changed of our outlook for the GBPUSD. Overall, our outlook is little changed from Monday [August 6]. With the ascending trendline off of the July 12 and July 25 lows holding, our bias is neutral. A daily close below 1.5595/1.5600 (50-DMA, short-term channel support) would be bearish, whereas a close below 1.5490/1.5520 (former swing lows) would be very bearish (as it would represent a break of the channel as well as the August lows). Near-term resistance is 1.5700/05 (August high), 1.5715/20 (200-DMA), and 1.5755/70 (July high, 100-DMA). Daily support is 1.5625/40 (10-DMA, 20-DMA) 1.5575/80, 1.5490/1.5520, then 1.5450/60 (July 25 low). Bias: neutral.

- USDJPY: A string of better than expected US data has shifted the fundamental bias of this pair, and indeed, the Rounded Bottom on the hourly charts has materialized a bullish outcome, as expected. This could be the first step towards the USDJPY Inverse Head & Shoulder formation playing out. With the Head at 77.60/70 and the Neckline at 80.60/70, this suggests a measured move towards 83.60/70 once initiated. The daily close above 78.60 yesterday, in our opinion, brings near-term resistance in focus at 79.15/20 (200-DMA). With the pair trading above this level today, a daily close above brings into focus 79.65/70 (100-DMA). Interim support comes in at 78.60 (former swing lows) and 78.10/20 (lows from the past week). Bias: bullish.

Any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the Real Time Newsfeed, or by following me on twitter @CVecchioFX.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to cvecchio@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES