News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • *Reminder: Weekly Strategy Webinar tomorrow morning at 8:30am EST on DailyFX! A look at the levels heading into #FOMC - https://t.co/lxd5fZnn4H
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here: https://t.co/8A1QhwMVKo https://t.co/Nx6AHxZksK
  • Markets Week Ahead: Euro, Dollar, Gold, S&P 500, Earnings, Inflation Check out @RichDvorakFX's latest market recap and preview plus all the weekly forecasts from the @DailyFXTeam at the link below! Link to Analysis - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/title/2021/07/25/markets-week-ahead-euro-dollar-gold-sp500-fed-earnings-inflation.html $EURUSD $SPX #Trading
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/xKkBwu951j
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here: https://t.co/yOUVEEqhc5 https://t.co/MYWlQphqtb
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/paOy1oQmn3
  • US indices have a packed week ahead with earnings from the major technology names, US GDP data due and an FOMC rate decision. With so much on the docket the potential for volatility is heightened. Get your stock market forecast from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/CH4WoStHvu
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/otJwnuR7qe
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/s4lZWdJoXV
  • The US Dollar Index traded higher last week, sustaining its broader uptrend. Conflicting technical signals urge caution, but the directional bias remains skewed to the upside. Get your weekly USD technical forecast from @FxWestwater here: https://t.co/jcwhcsUBEN https://t.co/tKrlrRZlZn
Daily Observations: August 15, 2012

Daily Observations: August 15, 2012

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Current Positions:

- Short AUDNZD from 1.3060, Stop at 1.3080, Target 1 at 1.2850

- Long EURCHF from 1.2018, Stop at 1.1990, Target 1 at 1.2500, Target 2 at 1.2750

- Short EURGBP from 0.7942, Stop at 0.7942, Target 1 at 0.7750

- Long USDJPY from 78.72, Stop at 77.60, Target 1 at 79.40, Target 2 at 80.60

Pending Positions:

- Pending Short AUDUSD 1.0535/45

- Pending Long USDJPY daily close >80.65

- Pending Long EURUSD daily close >1.2400/05

- Pending Short EURUSD daily close <1.2200/20

- AUDNZD: Last Tuesday I wrote: “The pair has moved higher thus far today, after back-to-back Inverted Hammers after a decline, signaling a potential reversal over the coming days; this could negatively impact the short taken.” Indeed, a move higher as transpired before Target 1 was hit; we nonetheless remain short as we view this as merely a pause lower; rallies into 1.3005 should be sold. As per the original trade plan, on a test of 1.2850, I will take 1/2 profit and then resell rallies back into 1.2920/30. With my Stop at breakeven (1.3060), the current position is insulated from losses. Given the divergence between the AUD and the NZD recently, I’m looking to sell further rallies in this pair. Bias: bearish.

- AUDUSD: The top that we posited that was forming on the 4-hour charts is close to being confirmed, now that prices have broken below 1.0500; ideally, a daily close below 1.0435/40 (August low) would confirm. At current price, near-term support comes in at 1.0435/45 and 1.0380/85, though with shorter-term timeframes showing exhaustion, we suspect a bounce could be had first. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.0480/1.0500, 1.0535/45 (former swing highs), 1.0580, 1.0600/15 (August high) and 1.0630. Bias: bearish.

- EURUSD: More sideways to downside price action in the EURUSD as the pair trickles lower amid thin trading conditions. The rally off of the July 24 low appeared to be corrective in nature, with three waves evident from the bottom (A-B-C correction). However, despite declines from the highs, we suspect that there is some support upcoming, given the ascending trendline off of the July 24 and August 2 lows, as well as former swing lows, at 1.2250/65. Any rally from this area should be sold; it is possible that a rebound here would mark a Bull Flag on the daily chart. Overall, however, we look for one more new low near the 2010 low of 1.1875 before the start of the next major bull leg (towards 1.3000). A drop towards 1.1695-1.1875 remains likely by mid-September. Interim resistance comes in at 1.2310/30, 1.2400/05, and 1.2440/45. Near-term support comes in at 1.2250/65, 1.2155/70, and 1.2130/35. The Inverse Head & Shoulders (Head at 1.2040/45, Neckline at 1.2400/05, Measured Move 1.2750/60) remains a potential outcome. Bias: bearish.

- GBPUSD: The muddle sideways continues, leaving little changed of our outlook for the GBPUSD. Overall, our outlook is little changed from Monday [August 6]. With the ascending trendline off of the July 12 and July 25 lows holding, our bias is neutral. A daily close below 1.5595/1.5600 (50-DMA, short-term channel support) would be bearish, whereas a close below 1.5490/1.5520 (former swing lows) would be very bearish (as it would represent a break of the channel as well as the August lows). Near-term resistance is 1.5700/05 (August high), 1.5715/20 (200-DMA), and 1.5755/70 (July high, 100-DMA). Daily support is 1.5625/40 (10-DMA, 20-DMA) 1.5575/80, 1.5490/1.5520, then 1.5450/60 (July 25 low). Bias: neutral.

- USDJPY: A string of better than expected US data has shifted the fundamental bias of this pair, and indeed, the Rounded Bottom on the hourly charts has materialized a bullish outcome, as expected. This could be the first step towards the USDJPY Inverse Head & Shoulder formation playing out. With the Head at 77.60/70 and the Neckline at 80.60/70, this suggests a measured move towards 83.60/70 once initiated. The daily close above 78.60 yesterday, in our opinion, brings near-term resistance in focus at 79.15/20 (200-DMA). Interim support comes in at 78.60 (former swing lows) and 78.10/20 (lows from the past week). Bias: bullish.

Any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the Real Time Newsfeed, or by following me on twitter @CVecchioFX.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to cvecchio@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES