News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The US Dollar is struggling against ASEAN currencies despite weakness in the S&P 500. Capital remains flowing into emerging markets, keeping USD under pressure, could this change? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/nwhy3XhE74 https://t.co/7nvijaAruu
  • Retail CFD traders have poked their head back into net bullish territory - an uncommon territory - in their net positioning for the $DJIA (Wall Street). Skeptical of a breakdown it seems https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment?ref-author=Kicklighter&CHID=9&QPID=917719 https://t.co/g12EqBGkGh
  • The Nasdaq 100-tracking QQQ ETF saw more than -$3.4 billion leave its coffers on Friday. Get your #Nasdaq market update from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/NZWg2XrEuD https://t.co/S9uxEGzJjJ
  • The $QQQ ETF recently saw its largest outflow, followed by its largest inflow since October 2000 What does this mean for the Nasdaq? Read more - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2020/09/22/Nasdaq-100-Forecast-Exodus-from-Tech-ETF-Has-Worrisome-Historical-Parallel.html?ref-author=phanks&QPID=917701&CHID=9 https://t.co/bS0V5IsS6Z
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.05% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.49% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.55% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.58% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.62% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.74% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/2JBbEKosO9
  • South African Rand clawing back yesterday’s depreciation against the US Dollar. Get your $USDZAR market update from @WVenketas here: https://t.co/9XCvJgRisU https://t.co/qk5KR4DncU
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.17% Gold: -0.57% Silver: -1.20% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/UPpRZN6FET
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.45%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 69.16%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/JExLntdypk
  • Strong quarter from Nike - Revenue: $10.59B vs $9.11B exp - EPS: $0.95 vs $0.47 exp - However, Nike noted continued Y/Y declines in physical retail traffic - $NKE shares jump more than 8% in after-hours
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.59% Germany 30: 0.39% France 40: 0.38% US 500: 0.00% Wall Street: 0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/xEWK3sBQzR
Daily Observations: August 13, 2012

Daily Observations: August 13, 2012

2012-08-13 11:57:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:

Current Positions:

- Short AUDNZD from 1.3060, Stop at 1.3080, Target 1 at 1.2850

- Short AUDUSD 1.0585 (1/2), Stop at 1.0635, Target 1 at 1.0310/30

- Long EURCHF from 1.2018, Stop at 1.1990, Target 1 at 1.2500, Target 2 at 1.2750

- Short EURGBP from 0.7942, Stop at 0.7942, Target 1 at 0.7750

- Long USDJPY from 78.22 (1/2), Stop at 77.60, Target 1 HIT at 78.60 (Closed for +38-pips), Target 2 at 79.40, Target 3 at 80.60

Pending Positions:

- Pending Long USDJPY daily close >80.65

- Pending Long EURUSD daily close >1.2400/05

- Pending Short EURUSD daily close <1.2200/20

- AUDNZD: Tuesday I wrote: “The pair has moved higher thus far today, after back-to-back Inverted Hammers after a decline, signaling a potential reversal over the coming days; this could negatively impact the short taken.” Indeed, a move higher as transpired before Target 1 was hit; we nonetheless remain short as we view this as merely a pause lower; rallies into 1.3005 should be sold. As per the original trade plan, on a test of 1.2850, I will take 1/2 profit and then resell rallies back into 1.2920/30. With my Stop at breakeven (1.3060), the current position is insulated from losses. Given the divergence between the AUD and the NZD recently, I’m looking to sell further rallies in this pair. Bias: bearish.

- AUDUSD: Last week I wrote “the pair’s exhaustion above 1.0600 (failure to see a daily close above said level) has stoked a pullback, and with a fundamental catalyst (Chinese worries), near-term price action is biased lower.” Prices continue to consolidate, and it very much appears that a Top is being formed on the 4-hour charts. Daily resistance comes in at 1.0580, 1.0600/15 and 1.0630. Near-term support comes in at 1.0535/45 (former swing highs), 1.0480/1.0500 (last week’s low), 1.0435/45, and 1.0380/85. Bias: bearish.

- EURUSD: More sideways price action in the EURUSD as the 20-DMA provided support today; though the rally off of the July 24 low appears to be corrective in nature, with three waves evident from the bottom (A-B-C correction). This suggests that further downside is likely; in our opinion, this translates to one more new low near the 2010 low of 1.1875 before the start of the next major bull leg. A drop towards 1.1695-1.1875 remains likely by mid-September. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.2310/30, 1.2400/05, and 1.2440/45. Daily support comes in at 1.2200/20 and 1.2155/70. The Inverse Head & Shoulders (Head at 1.2040/45, Neckline at 1.2400/05, Measured Move 1.2750/60) remains a potential outcome. Bias: neutral.

- GBPUSD: Last week I wrote “the muddle sideways continues, leaving little changed of our outlook for the GBPUSD. Overall, our outlook unchanged from Monday [August 6]. With the ascending trendline off of the July 12 and July 25 lows holding, our bias is neutral. A daily close below 1.5580/85 (50-DMA) would be bearish, whereas a close below 1.5490/1.5520 would be very bearish (as it would represent a break of the channel as well as last week’s lows).” Our view remains. Near-term resistance is 1.5700/05 (August high), 1.5720 (200-DMA), and 1.5755/70 (July high, 100-DMA). Daily support is 1.5620/25 (10-DMA, 20-DMA) 1.5575/80, 1.5490/1.5520, then 1.5450/60 (July 25 low). Bias: neutral.

- USDJPY: A pattern long in the making, the USDJPY Inverse Head & Shoulder formation that has been in wait-and-see mode remains valid so long as the Head at 77.60/70 holds. Indeed, it has, and after the Fed meeting and the July Nonfarm Payrolls two-weeks ago and the disappointing second quarter Japanese GDP this week, the USDJPY is constructive in the neat-term, fundamentally. Accordingly, with the Head at 77.60/70, this suggests a measured move towards 83.60/70 once initiated. Near-term resistance comes in at 79.15/20 (200-DMA). Price action to remain range bound as long as advances are capped by 80.60/70. On the hourly charts, it appears a Rounded Bottom is forming (yesterday was the highest exchange rate since July 20), and we are thus biased higher for now. Bias: bullish.

Any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the Real Time Newsfeed, or by following me on twitter @CVecchioFX.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to cvecchio@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES