We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.33%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 76.39%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/yX00FwBRaN
  • Forex Update: As of 12:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.18% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.14% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.07% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.00% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.01% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.04% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/4auhNzVWYV
  • Heads Up:🇧🇷 BCB Focus Market Readout due at 11:30 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-25
  • 🇲🇽 Balance of Trade Actual: $-3.087B Expected: $2.04B Previous: $3.398B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-25
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.32%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 76.77%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/Tha105cXZ5
  • Heads Up:🇲🇽 Balance of Trade due at 11:00 GMT (15min) Expected: $2.04B Previous: $3.392B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-25
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.73% Gold: -0.29% Silver: -0.85% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/enjCuKY7xE
  • $SPX faces pivotal resistance, while #FTSE 100 continues to trade in rangebound fashion. Get your #equities technical analysis from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/JXLZIbXzrQ https://t.co/37cpFa4skw
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.21% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.11% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.03% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.05% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.06% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.08% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/W8OTNI6e3n
  • 🇮🇱 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 1st Est Actual: -1.8% Previous: 1.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-25
Daily Observations: July 19, 2012

Daily Observations: July 19, 2012

2012-07-19 11:50:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:

Current Positions:

- Short AUDUSD from 1.0425

- Short EURJPY from 98.55

- Short GBPJPY from 123.63

- Stopped out USDJPY at 78.60 from 79.11 for -51-pips

- Long EURCHF from 1.2018

- AUDJPY: It appears that the pair has completed its Wave 4 rally off of the June 1 low at 74.45/50. The formation is neat considering the Wave 4 termination at 82.35/40 fell short of the Wave 1 termination at 82.48/50; this is imperative for the impulsive decline off the March highs. We now look to sell rallies for a test of the 2011 lows at 72.00/05. Near-term support comes in at 79.40/50 (former swing highs and lows) and then 78.35/50. Advances should be capped by 82.35/40; a break above this level signals a reversal and invalidates our bearish setup. Bias: bearish.

- AUDUSD: The pair is working higher in two separate ascending channels, hitting resistance at 1.0430 in the less steep of the two. A daily close above this level signals a rally further up into 1.0470/75 (April high). However, short-term charts are looking overextended at current price, so it’s possible there is some consolidation/downside price action before the next leg higher. Near-term support comes in at 1.0385, 1.0325/30, and 1.0135/55. Bias: bearish.

- EURJPY:A Head and Shoulders pattern appears to be in play on the 4-hour charts, and it looks very clean – perhaps my favorite setup right now. With the Head at 101.60/70 and the Neckline at 98.55/65, the measured move is for a test of 95.60; the yearly low comes in at 95.55/60. This is ideal because it suggests a 300-pips move before finding support at the yearly low – this is very clean. I’ve moved my Stop for 3/4 of the position to 97.55 to lock in +100-pips in the event of a pullback; 1/4 profit was taken Monday at 96.25 for +230-pips. I will resell rallies into 97.50 with my Stop at 97.60 at present time. Bias: bearish.

- EURUSD: The EURUSD continues to flag higher, range bound with higher highs and higher lows, but that changes little when looking at the pair beyond just a few days. We remain bearish as the pair has yet to complete its measured move from its May 1 decline, and over the coming six-weeks, we are looking for a sell-off into 1.1695-1.1875. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.2315/20 and 1.2360/65. Above that, interest lies 1.2400, and the crucial 1.2440/80 zone (Symmetrical Triangle support). Support comes in at 1.2255/65, 1.2200/05 (Bollinger Band), 1.2175/90 (lows from Monday and Tuesday), and 1.2160/65 (July lows). Bias: bearish.

- GBPUSD: The pair closed above its 50-DMA yesterday and broke out of a short-term descending channel, in what perhaps may be a Bull Flag on the 4-hour/daily charts. Near-term resistance comes in 1.5720/25 (former swing high), and a close above this level will signal the beginning of a measured move up towards 1.5890/1.5905. Above that, selling interest could return at 1.5745/50 (200-DMA) and 1.5775/80 (June high). Near-term support comes in at 1.5580, 1.5460/65 then 1.5390/1.5405 (monthly low, Bollinger Band). Bias: neutral.

- USDJPY: Is the USDJPY is working on an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern off of the June 1 low? It certainly appeared so for a while there, but the bullish pattern is in question now that the Right Shoulder has broken as support, and our interest lies in seeing if there is a daily close below it at 78.60. If so, we suspect further losses towards 78.15/25. Still, as long as the Head at 77.60/70 holds, the pattern remains technically valid. With the Head at 77.60/70, this suggests a measured move towards 83.60/70 once initiated. Near-term resistance comes in at 79.00/05 (200-DMA). Price action to remain range bound as long as advances are capped by 80.60/70. Bias: neutral

Any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the Real Time Newsfeed, or by following me on twitter @CVecchioFX.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to cvecchio@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.