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Daily Observations: July 13, 2012

Daily Observations: July 13, 2012

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

- AUDJPY: It appears that the pair has completed its Wave 4 rally off of the June 1 low at 74.45/50. The formation is neat considering the Wave 4 termination at 82.35/40 fell short of the Wave 1 termination at 82.48/50; this is imperative for the impulsive decline off the March highs. We now look to sell rallies for a test of the 2011 lows at 72.00/05. Near-term support comes in at 79.40/50 (former swing highs and lows) and then 78.35/50. Advances should be capped by 82.35/40; a break above this level signals a reversal and invalidates our bearish setup. Bias: bearish.

- AUDUSD: After a test of 1.01 yesterday, the pair has rebounded after the Chinese second quarter GDP reading, which was largely priced in it appears (or rather, the disappointing print means that the People’s Bank of China will need to ease further, which is bullish for risk-appetite). Near-term resistance comes in at 1.0210 and 1.0250/60. Support now comes in at 1.0155/60, 1.0120/25, 1.0080 (former intraday swing highs), and 1.0000/05 (50-DMA). Bias: bearish.

- EURJPY:A Head and Shoulders pattern appears to be in play on the 4-hour charts, and it looks very clean – perhaps my favorite setup right now. With the Head at 101.60/70 and the Neckline at 98.55/65, the measured move is for a test of 95.60; the yearly low comes in at 95.55/60. This is ideal because it suggests a 300-pips move before finding support at the yearly low – this is very clean. I’ve moved my Stop for ½ of the position to 97.55 to lock in +100-pips in the event of a pullback. Bias: bearish.

- EURUSD: Fundamentally, the EURUSD could tumble precipitously as the US Dollar’s outlook improves. Short-term technicals have relieved oversold conditions, suggesting that the rebound seen off of yesterday’s lows may be it its final stages barring a new catalyst. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.2230/35 and 1.2285/90. Above that, interest lies at 1.2360/65, 1.2400, and the crucial 1.2440/80 zone (Symmetrical Triangle support). Support comes in the 1.2140/60 zone then 1.2075 (Bollinger Band). Given the measured move and Fibonacci extensions, we are looking for a move towards 1.1695-1.1875 over the next eight-weeks. Bias: bearish.

- GBPUSD: Advances have been capped by the 10-DMA, most recently at 1.5571 on Wednesday (also the mid-point for the Bollinger Bands). New monthly lows were set today at 1.5440, suggesting that the seasonal trend in place will remain into next week. A daily close above 1.5580 reverses this trend and suggests a test of the monthly high at 1.5720/25. Near-term support comes in at 1.5390/95 (weekly low) and 1.5365/70 (Bollinger Band). Bias: bearish.

- USDJPY: The USDJPY is working on an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern off of the June 1 low, with the neckline coming in at 80.60/70. Only a daily close above this level will signal the commencement of this pattern. With the Head at 77.60/70, this suggests a measured move towards 83.60/70 once initiated. Near-term support comes in at 78.95/79.00 (200-DMA). Price action to remain range bound as long as advances are capped by 80.60/70. Bias: neutral.

Any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the Real Time Newsfeed, or by following me on twitter @CVecchioFX.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to cvecchio@dailyfx.com

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