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Daily Observations: May 10, 2012

Daily Observations: May 10, 2012

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Today’s price action was rather interesting, in my opinion, in such that there was little reason to be optimistic about the developments in Europe. As far as I’m concerned, the only thing that matters in Greece is that the left-wing Syriza party (headed by Alexis Tsipras) will not form a coalition government unless the other major parties (New Democracy, PASOK) agree to renege on the Greek bailout. That’s not going to happen, and despite whatever rumors that are spread that a government is coming together, I’ve neither heard nor seen anything that refutes my belief that we’re due for another election. Today’s a good opportunity to get short at better levels.

- AUDJPY: Yesterday I said that “I thought that the 200-DMA would serve as decent support but clearly this is a level that is just not being respected at present time,” and while this has been true, it held up as resistance today, with pair trading less than 10-pips above the key level (now at 81.04). Commodities are being liquidated to raise capital and data out of Australia has done nothing to bolster confidence. I continue to look lower towards 79.70 (mid-January swing high, former resistance/support rule in effect). It’s also worth noting that the AUDJPY had its first daily oversold reading yesterday (24.86) since October 3, 2011. I favor further downside.

- AUDUSD: Parity continues to be tough to break but I do think we should clear this level in a few days, despite today’s bounce. The bounce was confined to the steep descending TL on the May 3 and May 8 highs (1.0145) before closing back below 1.01. Targets lower remain valid, and for now, I’m looking for 1.0015 (parallel descending TL on April 4 low from February 29 and April 27 highs). A break below exposes a move below channel support and we could see a sharp move towards .9900. I favor further downside.

- EURUSD: The bearish wedge is very much in place, with the EURUSD failing to rally much at all today. Now that 1.30 and 1.2970/75 (former swing low) have broken, as well as the 1.2950/55 level (former May low), I’m eying 1.2870/75 (former high/low swings) and 1.2625/30 (yearly low). A move to the topside is the ‘harder’ path, with resistance at 1.2950/55 and 1.2970/75, 1.3065 (wedge former support), and 1.3115/20 (100-DMA). I favor further downside price action and look to sell rallies into 1.3065.

- USDJPY: My outlook is unchanged and will remain as such unless the USDJPY breaks above 80.60. The pair remains supported by its 100-DMA (now 79.68), a level that it hasn’t closed below since February 8. The tug-and-pull between the Federal Reserve’s QE program and the Bank of Japan’s recent ¥10 trillion stimulus package has kept the pair relatively stable the past several sessions, but a further move lower is expected. Currently, the USDJPY appears to be in a Wave 5 impulse lower, with a 5wave extension completing around 79.10/15, also the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement on the February low/March high move. I prefer staying on the sidelines until a move there, at which point I will get long. A break above 80.60 negates this view and suggests a test of 81.80.

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