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Christopher Vecchio's Analyst Pick

Christopher Vecchio's Analyst Pick

2012-05-01 14:00:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
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Price action in the overnight yielded a nice AUD sell-off on the back of a surprise 50-bps rate cut from the RBA. While I'm surprised that the RBA cut by 50-bps instead of just 25-bps immediately, I do think that the RBA is going to be very proactive in insulating the Australian economy from a slowdown in Chinese growth figures - China is Australia's largest trading partner.

In light of this, I prefer selling AUDUSD and AUDJPY as well as looking at opportunities to sell AUDCAD and buy GBPAUD.

- AUDJPY: In light of the failed Bank of Japan effort to weaken the Japanese Yen and the RBA's rate cut, any upward progress made by the pair has been undercut and looks poised to to make a move towards fresh lows unseen since early Febryary. The break of the 100-DMA is a big deal, as this level was held on each of the prior attempts of breaking through. For now, this is our interim resistance. I prefer selling rallies into 83.10 with a stop above the 20-DMA (83.87).

- AUDUSD: While the US Dollar has been hurt by recent Fed commentary and the poor US GDP print, as mentioned in the AUDJPY comment, the RBA has crushed any upward momentum that AUD had. The break of the 200-DMA (1.0355) is not that significant considering the pair really hasn't respected the level; but it bears mentioning. Support now lies in 1.0290/305 zone, given the former TL resistance on the March 2 and April 13 highs has now become support. A break lines up a test of 1.0260, the ascending TL on the April 11 and April 24 lows.

- EURUSD: A long-term descending channel remains in place off of the August and October 2011 highs / the October 2011 and January 2012 lows. The rally off of the January low failed to reach to ever-elusive 1.3500 level, and for the better part of the last two months, we've been stuck in an intermediate bullish contracting wedge (or triangle). While this would suggest a break to the upside, the longer-term techs - the range previously mentioned - are to be respected. Given current price (1.3236), resistance to the upside comes in at 1.3270/80 (swing high, TL resistance). Support now comes back at 1.3154 (20-DMA), 1.3114 (100-DMA), 1.3055/70 (wedge support), 1.2975/95 (February low, April low), and 1.2855/70 (former support/resistance zone). Again, I favor downside price action now that we've seen a breach of the floor of the daily triangle that has been in place since mid-February.

Any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the Real Time Newsfeed, or by following me on twitter @CVecchioFX.

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