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Christopher Vecchio's Analyst Pick

Christopher Vecchio's Analyst Pick

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

My 1/4 size AUDJPY long was stopped out last night on the Australian labor market report - this was expected but because of my bearish bias in risk, I exited with intent to sell again. Earlier, as per the RTN, I shorted AUDJPY at 84.33 with a Stop above the weekly high (84.65) targeting the lows once more. Momentum has been sharp to the upside today so this might be a wash quickly.

My rationale is that while markets are moving higher, Chinese growth data is due tonight. Data throughout the first quarter was a disappointment, most notably weak domestic demand stirred concern. I am expecting a disappointing print tonight to aid this trade.

If the data is positive, I'll look to quickly reverse my position and look to ride the momentum higher into the 85.000s (thoughts on resistance below).

Here are my general market observations on currencies I've been following closely the past few days:

- AUDUSD: The pair found support in the 1.0220/40 region and on the Aussie unemployment report it has absolutely skyrocketed; at the point of writing it was trading at 1.0440. This represents a signficant breakout from a range that it had been constrained by since February 29. The key level to the upside to watch it 1.0460/70, the high for April. A breach of this would suggest an intramonth reversal and we would look higher. Support now lies as 1.0412 (100-DMA), 1.0395/97 (20-DMA and TL support on October and November 2011 lows), and 1.0300.

- AUDJPY: The pair has been range bound like the AUDUSD, but it has not broken out of its range as the Japanese Yen has been stronger than the US Dollar recently. Given current price (84.51), resistance overhead comes in at 84.60/65 (weekly high) and 85.00/20 (descending channel resistance on March 20 and 27 highs). Near-term support now lies at 84.36 (200-HMA), 83.665 (100-HMA), and 83.335 (50-HMA).

- EURJPY: Today's price action has thus far yielded a break of a very steep descending channel that has been in place since April 2. Still, the pair failed to rally back to its 50-DMA nor did it reach the previous swing high (107.45). Should we see this level break, we can safely declare the range broken and look higher towards 107.80, 108.65/80, and the psychologically significant 110.00 level.

- EURUSD: A long-term descending channel remains in place off of the August and October 2011 highs / the October 2011 and January 2012 lows. The rally off of the January low failed to reach to ever-elusive 1.3500 level, and for the better part of the last two months, we've been stuck in an intermediate bullish contracting wedge (or triangle). While this would suggest a break to the upside, the longer-term techs - the range previously mentioned - are to be respected. Resistance to the upside lies at the 20-/50-DMA confluence at 1.3210/15. Supports now 1.3134 (100-DMA) and 1.3030/40 (weekly low, wedge support).

Any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the Real Time Newsfeed, or by following me on twitter @CVecchioFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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