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Christopher Vecchio's Analyst Pick

Christopher Vecchio's Analyst Pick

2012-04-06 16:21:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

The US NFPs report for March was rather intriguing from a traders perspective given its longer-term implications. While the print played out as I expected - weak print meant US Dollar weakness (especially against the Yen), this does raise questions about the direction of the US' recovery. Does the Federal Reserve need to ease more? I'm sure we'll here this question raised over the coming weeks.

For now, I don't think just one data print is enough to prompt QE3/QE3-lite/QE-Twist 2.0 (whatever you want to call it) - as stated before in my columns, it's going to take a string of poor data with the most severe downside pressure affecting the housing sector. With that said, I do think more easing is coming (it pains me to say that). Until then, risk-off is the trade, and I will be selling rallies in risk but I remain cautiously bearish - I doubt that policymakers let markets enter a panic once again but we're far away from that for now.

Going into the weekend, I'm going to stay flat (save my long EURCHF trade) as US markets were closed today and European markets are closed through Monday. To me, that means we'll see the first full-session at the start of trading in Asia on Tuesday - I would gander that Europe sells the print and we see some weakness to start the week.

Side note: going into and coming out of holiday weekends, I prefer to stay on the sidelines given thinner liquidity conditions.

Any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the Real Time Newsfeed, or by following me on twitter @CVecchioFX

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